Sweet Jesus on a Biscuit......can we please get some direction? Yesterday's 148 point drop on the Dow was encouraging. But follow through? Of course not. We bounce back today by half that amount. Zzzzzzzzzz. Give us as break - literally - through one of those price lines!
Oh, a bit of housekeeping. I've made a couple of cosmetic improvements. First, at the request of a comment made to the previous post, I have reduced the number of posts displayed down from 7 to 3. That will speed up loading time and make for a shorter page to scroll. Second, I've changed the scheme of my charts to what I think is a much cleaner appearance. Let me know what you think. Oh, and in case you've forgotten, click on any chart to see a much bigger version.
Back to charts. The Russell 2000 is in the same boat every other index is - if it breaks beneath a very clearly defined support level, it's time to rock and roll. If it continues to fart around in this range, it's just going to keep boring the pants off of everyone. And if it breaks into new high territory, that's when I climb to the top span of the Golden Gate.
I bought a bunch of puts on the $XAU today based on its price position relative to its well-defined channel. A stop-loss on this would not be expensive, since we're mushed up so high against the channel.
Cardinal Health (CAH), mentioned here numerous times, is on the cusp of a breakdown. But until it goes beneath that neckline, it is a pattern in formation, and nothing more.
I found the puts on Chinese equity-based FXI were fairly heavily traded, so I acquired some today.
I mentioned McGraw Hill (MHP) as a short
last month, and it has lost about 15% of its value since then.
Now, as you know, I acquired a couple of iPhones on National Steve Jobs Day, and I made a
little video about it. It's a terrific product. There's a ton of wizardy and magic in it, and I'm proud to show it off.
But, Lord almighty, this thing has bugs. Bugs, bugs, bugs! And I'm not even a heavy user. I just checked, and I've used it a total of 9 hours and 36 minutes. That's decent, but it's hardly an exhaustive field test.
In that time I've tripped over a surprising array of really serious issues. Like the fact that the phone outright hangs so hard that I have to reboot it. And the lack of basic editing features, such as double-clicking on a word not selecting that word. Or the inability to insert a cursor within a word (e.g. if you misspell a word, you have to erase the whole frickin' thing and retype it instead of correcting the offending letter).
The worst bug of all is Safari crashing. Which it does. Constantly. So a typical example is like this.......you're cruising along, looking at a web page, scrolling up or down a bit. And then - bam! - it throws you right back to the "home" screen of the iPhone. No big deal, you say, I'll simply go back to Safari (the web browser). Sure, you can do that - - but you're starting at scratch again. The page you were looking at is gone.
This happens to me so constantly that I'm put off on looking at any web content anymore. It isn't just a nuisance. It basically eviscerates one of the principal reasons for having this thing!
Added to which, every time I plug the iPhone into its dock for some juice, this stupid window appears on my desktop, so I have to cancel out of it. Annoying as hell.
Luckily, someone has helped me to release some of my frustration by asking the question: Will It Blend?
at
7/11/200717 insightful comments Links to this postLabels:
$xau,
cah,
fxi,
iphone,
mhpTuesday, July 10, 2007
Spock GrokI was going to write a huge entry today about emotions and the market. But it's already four hours after the close, and I'm still stung with guilt pangs from such a late posting last night, so I'm going to leave my essay for another day.
I will say, though, that I yearn to be like Spock during times like this. The problem with these range-bound markets is that, for a bear, (a) when at the low end of the range, I'm flush with profits, I'm totally committed to my positions, and I'm into way more risk than I should be since I've been doing so well; yet (b) when at the high end of the range, when I'm sacrificed some or all of those aforementioned profits, I'm skittish and risk-averse. Obviously being just the opposite would be helpful on both counts. Spock is a cool customer.
Of course, we're all only human, and markets run completely contrary to human nature. That's why there are a handful of big winners - - those that defy the greed/fear trap - - and the rest of us are just schlubs. Let's face it - emotions and the financial markets are just another example of one of life's bad combinations.
I haven't mentioned China in a while. I'll say this.........long term, I think China is going to be king of the world, or at least a prince. Whereas its neighbor Russia will, in my opinion, collapse back into socialism or communism within the next decade. My optimism for China's long-term prospect's aside, what we're witnessing now is a bubble, pure and simple, driven largely by embarrassing naievete on a greedy yet clueless investing public.
The Dow fell 148 points today. It doesn't mean much until and unless we break 13,250. If we do, I'll probably return to being the arrogant pr*ck you all love so dearly. Until then, my hands remain peacefully clasped on my lap.
The Russell 2000 had an even worse (that is, better) day. My index puts on the $RUT did great.
The S&P is approaching the re-entry point on that channel is busted above a number of weeks ago.
I've stopped buying puts on AutoZone - there's only so much punishment I enjoy - but this stock is really looking toppy.
Ol' beanie has mentioned BIDU so much I might as well put up a chart. My hat is off to any chart that can do this on a day like today.
I added to my Capital One Financial (COF) position.
The DIA puts aren't as clean a deal as the IWM or RUT puts, but they're OK - - decent volume and a 10 cent not-too-terrible bid/ask spread. I did a day trade on these today with good results.
Goldman Sachs (GS) continues to be a put position I believe in.....although the big plunge never seems to happen to AJC's employer.
I've mentioned McKesson (MCK) many times because of its Fibonacci fans. Add to this now an imminent head and shoulders breakdown.
Someone mentioned SHLD in the comments section today.......thanks very much! I've mentioned Sears over and over. It's been inching down. Only today did it really take it in the groin.
VMC is kind of an interesting pattern, inasmuch as it seems to be breaking below a pretty wide consolidation rectangle.
I heard this tune today, and it reminded me of the markets.......to everything there is a season. Bears: I swear it's not too late.
at
7/10/200734 insightful comments Links to this postLabels:
$rut,
$spx,
azo,
bidu,
cof,
dia,
gs,
mck,
shld,
vmcMonday, July 09, 2007
FrothHow do you address the heartache of repetitious comments? How does one quell hyperbolic, bombastic touting of the same securities over and over? What can you do to temper a mix of English and Spanish comments? Yes, it's....
Sorry for the very late posting tonight. Long story. While up here in the (relative) wilderness, I was struck by this sign:
The Dow, although up, still didn't signal a break yet. We're still in this flag pattern.
Gold has had a very strong past couple of days, but it also is at the upper reaches of a well-established range.
I've been mentioned BEAS as a short for a couple of weeks now. It has a nice, clean stop at $14.20.
Sotheby's (BID), which I've succesfully shorted before, might have a nice double top here.
Honeywell might have registered a triple top. All these "mights" and "maybes" are annoying, I'm sure, but it's never clear until some time has passed. These are calculated risks.
Martin Marietta (MLM) is awfully lofty and seems to be losing its momentum at these heights.
On the bullish side, I mentioned SCHN
back on April 14th when the stock was $46. It has had a strong run since then, with a particularly strong surge upward today.
Another old favorite, Taser (TASR) seems to have found its second life. It has run up a bit much for me to be interested now, but a pullback to its breakout would make this an interesting buy.
