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油價逼近100美元關(guān)口 Hopes for growth push oil to within reach of $100
2011年01月13日 13:27 PM

油價逼近100美元關(guān)口
Hopes for growth push oil to within reach of $100

 


Oil has risen to within reach of $100 a barrel for the first time since the 2008 price spike amid mounting optimism that global economic growth will boost demand.

石油價格自2008年以來首次逼近每桶100美元大關(guān),因為市場對于全球經(jīng)濟增長將推動石油需求的樂觀預(yù)期日益強烈。

But the sharp rise has also heightened concerns about the impact of soaring commodity prices on the global economy, particularly in emerging countries, as it comes on top of high costs for agricultural commodities and metals.

但油價的大幅上漲,也加劇了以下?lián)鷳n:擔(dān)心大宗商品價格飆升對全球經(jīng)濟、特別是新興國家的沖擊,因為農(nóng)產(chǎn)品和金屬價格本已高企。

The oil surge also comes on the back of supply disruptions such as this week’s outage in a pipeline in Alaska and strong investor inflows in commodities.

油價上漲也有供應(yīng)中斷方面的原因,比如本周阿拉斯加一條輸油管道供應(yīng)中斷;此外,也是由于投資者大舉涌入大宗商品市場。

Traders said there was a growing consensus that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was comfortable with prices near at $100 a barrel. In the past, Saudi Arabia, the cartel’s de facto leader, had said it would work to keep oil prices at $70-$80.

交易員表示,市場正逐漸形成這種共識:即歐佩克(OPEC)已對每桶將近100美元的油價安之若素。以往,該組織實際上的領(lǐng)袖沙特阿拉伯曾表示,將努力把油價控制在每桶70-80美元。

Brent crude, the global benchmark, hit an intraday high of $98.8 a barrel on Wednesday, the highest since September 2008, when oil prices were in the midst of a collapse from their $147-a-barrel record.

周三,全球基準布倫特原油盤中一度觸及每桶98.8美元高點,創(chuàng)下2008年9月以來的最高價——當(dāng)時,油價正處于自147美元的歷史高點暴跌的途中。

“Brent can hit $100 any day now. There’s a lot of upward momentum,” Michael Wittner, at Société Générale, said.

“目前布倫特原油隨時可能達到100美元。上行動力強勁,”法國興業(yè)銀行(Michael Wittner)的邁克爾•維特納(Michael Wittner)表示。

The cost of premium quality crude varieties in the physical market, such as Tapis of Indonesia and Bonny Light of Nigeria, surged on Wednesday above $100 a barrel.

現(xiàn)貨市場上,各類優(yōu)質(zhì)原油品種的價格周三已突破每桶100美元,如印尼的Tapis和尼日利亞的Bonny輕質(zhì)原油等。

The strength in the rebound in oil consumption last year surprised many, with demand growing at 2.3m barrels a day, the second-highest in three decades. Traders and investors have begun the year in bullish fettle. “The consensus demand forecast for 2011 is creeping up day after day,” a trader said.

去年石油消費反彈之強勁,出乎很多人的意料,市場需求每天增長230萬桶,創(chuàng)下30年來的次高水平。新年伊始,交易員和投資者對市場充滿樂觀。“市場對2011年需求的一致預(yù)測每天都在提高,”一位交易員表示。

The International Energy Agency, the western countries’ oil watchdog, forecast that consumption would grow this year by a slower 1.3m b/d, but analysts and traders believe it would be much higher, with some pointing to 1.7-2.0m b/d.

西方國家的石油監(jiān)管機構(gòu)國際能源署(IEA)預(yù)計,今年石油消費的增長將略有放緩,為每天130萬桶,但分析師和交易員認為,實際數(shù)字可能要高得多,有人認為將達到170萬至200萬桶。

But analysts cautioned that Brent could be overbought. While it is flirting with $100, West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, is languishing.

但分析師警告稱,布倫特原油可能已處于超買。在它逼近100美元關(guān)口的同時,美國基準的西德州中質(zhì)油價格卻在逐步下滑。

On Wednesday, WTI was trading more than $6.50 short of Brent prices at $92.39. The widening gap between the two benchmarks is due to a build-up of inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the landlocked delivery point for the WTI contract.

周三,西德州中質(zhì)油價格報收92.39美元,比布倫特價格低6.50美元以上。兩個基準原油之間的價差日益擴大,原因是美國俄克拉荷馬州庫欣的庫存正在增加。位于內(nèi)陸的庫欣是西德州中質(zhì)油期貨合約的交割地。

As Cushing has few outlets to evacuate surplus oil, a glut tends to depress the price of WTI relative to other US and international benchmarks.

由于庫欣也沒有什么容納多余石油的空間,庫存過剩往往壓低西德州中質(zhì)油相對于美國和國際市場基準原油的價格。

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