Creative destruction
創(chuàng)造性毀滅
A cost crisis, changing labour markets and new technology will turn an old institution on its head
成本危機(jī)、變化中的勞動力市場和新技術(shù)將徹底改變一種古老的制度
Jun 28th 2014 | From the print edition
HIGHER education is one of the great successes of the welfare state. What was once the privilege of a few has become a middle-class entitlement, thanks mainly to government support. Some 3.5m Americans and 5m Europeans will graduate this summer. In the emerging world universities are booming: China has added nearly 30m places in 20 years. Yet the business has changed little since Aristotle taught at the Athenian Lyceum: young students still gather at an appointed time and place to listen to the wisdom of scholars.
福利國家有著眾多的巨大成就，高等教育就是其中之一。得益于政府的支持，一度曾是少數(shù)人特權(quán)的高等教育已成為中產(chǎn)階層的一項權(quán)利。今年夏天，美國
約有350萬學(xué)生，歐洲
約有500萬學(xué)生將從大學(xué)畢業(yè)。在新興世界中，高等教育正在蓬勃發(fā)展：中國已在20年的時間中增加了將近3000萬個教室。然而，如今的這項產(chǎn)業(yè)同亞里士多德在雅典學(xué)園中教書的時代相比，并沒有多大的變化：年輕的學(xué)生仍是聚集在指定的時間和地點(diǎn)，來聆聽學(xué)者的智慧。
Now a revolution has begun (see article), thanks to three forces: rising costs, changing demand and disruptive technology. The result will be the reinvention of the university.
如今，在三種力量——日益增長的成本，不斷變化的要求和
顛覆性的技術(shù)——的作用下，一場革命已經(jīng)開始，其結(jié)果將是大學(xué)的徹底改變。
Off campus, online
撤離校園，走向網(wǎng)絡(luò)
Higher education suffers from Baumol's disease—the tendency of costs to soar in labour-intensive sectors with stagnant productivity. Whereas the prices of cars, computers and much else have fallen dramatically, universities, protected by public-sector funding and the premium employers place on degrees, have been able to charge ever more for the same service. For two decades the cost of going to college in America has risen by 1.6 percentage points more than inflation every year.
高等教育得的是鮑莫爾成本病。它指的是這樣一種趨勢：在生產(chǎn)力停滯不前的勞動密集部門，成本往往會趨向于大幅上漲。就在汽車、計算機(jī)以及其他商品的價格大幅下降之時，因為有公共部門資助的保護(hù)，
加之雇主對于學(xué)位的重視，大學(xué)一直能夠?qū)ν瑯拥姆?wù)收取更高的費(fèi)用。在過去的20年中，在美國上大學(xué)的成本一直在上漲，每年的上漲幅度比通脹高出1.6個百分點(diǎn)。
For most students university remains a great deal; by one count the boost to lifetime income from obtaining a college degree, in net-present-value terms, is as much as $590,000 (see article). But for an increasing number of students who have gone deep into debt—especially the 47% in America and 28% in Britain who do not complete their course—it is plainly not value for money. And the state's willingness to pick up the slack is declining. In America government funding per student fell by 27% between 2007 and 2012, while average tuition fees, adjusted for inflation, rose by 20%. In Britain tuition fees, close to zero two decades ago, can reach ￡9,000 ($15,000 a year).
對于大多數(shù)學(xué)生來說，大學(xué)仍舊是一筆“大買賣”。據(jù)統(tǒng)計，以凈現(xiàn)值計算，獲得大學(xué)學(xué)位之于終生收入的提高相當(dāng)于590000美元。但是，對于那些越來越多的已經(jīng)背上了沉重債務(wù)的學(xué)生來說，
尤其是對占美國學(xué)生總數(shù)47％和占英國學(xué)生總數(shù)28%的沒有完成課程的學(xué)生來說，大學(xué)學(xué)位根本不值這么多。同時，政府提供資助的意愿也在下降。在美國，政府對每個學(xué)生的資助，在2007年-2012年間減少了27%，而同期平均學(xué)費(fèi)，按照通脹調(diào)整后，卻上漲了20%。在英國，20年前幾乎為零的學(xué)費(fèi)如今能夠達(dá)到9000英鎊（合15000美元一年）。
The second driver of change is the labour market. In the standard model of higher education, people go to university in their 20s: a degree is an entry ticket to the professional classes. But automation is beginning to have the same effect on white-collar jobs as it has on blue-collar ones. According to a study from Oxford University, 47% of occupations are at risk of being automated in the next few decades. As innovation wipes out some jobs and changes others, people will need to top up their human capital throughout their lives.
變化的第二種推動力是勞動力市場。在標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的高等教育模式中，人們都是在20歲左右上大學(xué)。因為，學(xué)位是進(jìn)入職業(yè)階層入場券。但是，自動化正在開始給白領(lǐng)工作帶來它曾給藍(lán)領(lǐng)工作所帶來的相同的影響。據(jù)牛津大學(xué)研究，在未來的幾十年內(nèi)，47%的工作會面臨被自動化的風(fēng)險。創(chuàng)新能消除某些工作，也能改變某些工作，人們將有不得不在為了自己的一生中而增加人力資本。
By themselves, these two forces would be pushing change. A third—technology—ensures it. The internet, which has turned businesses from newspapers through music to book retailing upside down, will upend higher education. Now the MOOC, or “Massive Open Online Course”, is offering students the chance to listen to star lecturers and get a degree for a fraction of the cost of attending a university.
憑以上這兩種力量自身就能夠推動變化。第三種力量——技術(shù)——確保了這種變化。已經(jīng)令媒體、音樂和圖書零售這些產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)生天翻地覆變化的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)將會顛覆高等教育。如今，大規(guī)模開放式網(wǎng)絡(luò)課程（MOOC）正在給學(xué)生提供機(jī)會，使他們得以聆聽明星教師的講課，并且只需花費(fèi)上大學(xué)費(fèi)用的
一小部分就可獲得學(xué)位。
MOOCs started in 2008; and, as often happens with disruptive technologies, they have so far failed to live up to their promise. Largely because there is no formal system of accreditation, drop-out rates have been high. But this is changing as private investors and existing universities are drawn in. One provider, Coursera, claims over 8m registered users. Though its courses are free, it bagged its first $1m in revenues last year after introducing the option to pay a fee of between $30 and $100 to have course results certified. Another, Udacity, has teamed up with AT&T and Georgia Tech to offer an online master's degree in computing, at less than a third of the cost of the traditional version. Harvard Business School will soon offer an online “pre-MBA” for $1,500. Starbucks has offered to help pay for its staff to take online degrees with Arizona State University.
MOOC始于2008年；就如經(jīng)常發(fā)生在毀滅性技術(shù)身上的那種情況一樣，截至目前，MOOC一直未能兌現(xiàn)它們的承諾。主因是沒有正式的認(rèn)證體系，同時中途退出的比例也一直居高不下。但是，隨著私人投資者和現(xiàn)有的大學(xué)被吸引進(jìn)來，這種情況正在改變。MOOC的一位提供商Coursera自稱有超過800萬的注冊用戶。雖然課程是免費(fèi)的，但是這家提供商已經(jīng)因為在去年引入了
支付30美元-100美元就可以得到認(rèn)證的選項而收獲了第一筆100萬美元的收入。另一家提供商Udacity已經(jīng)聯(lián)合AT&T和佐治亞理工學(xué)院，以不到傳統(tǒng)費(fèi)用三分之一價格，提供計算機(jī)
碩士學(xué)位的在線課程。哈佛商學(xué)院不久會提供在線MBA預(yù)備課程，費(fèi)用是1500美元。星巴克已經(jīng)幫助其雇員支付參與亞利桑那州州立大學(xué)在線課程的費(fèi)用。
MOOCs will disrupt different universities in different ways. Not all will suffer. Oxford and Harvard could benefit. Ambitious people will always want to go to the best universities to meet each other, and the digital economy tends to favour a few large operators. The big names will be able to sell their MOOCs around the world. But mediocre universities may suffer the fate of many newspapers. Were the market for higher education to perform in future as that for newspapers has done over the past decade or two, universities’ revenues would fall by more than half, employment in the industry would drop by nearly 30% and more than 700 institutions would shut their doors. The rest would need to reinvent themselves to survive.
MOOC會以不同的方式摧毀不同的大學(xué)。但是，不是所有的大學(xué)都會遭遇這種命運(yùn)。哈佛和牛津能夠從中獲益。有野心的人總是想要上最好的大學(xué)，以便能夠互相
結(jié)識。同時，數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)也往往是青睞少數(shù)的大型運(yùn)作者。名校能夠在全世界范圍內(nèi)賣出他們的MOOC。但是，普通的大學(xué)可能會遭遇許多報紙已經(jīng)遭遇了的命運(yùn)。如果高等教育市場在未來上演報紙在過去的一二十年間已經(jīng)上演過的那一幕的話，大學(xué)的收入會減少一半以上，該產(chǎn)業(yè)的就業(yè)率會降低差不多30%，700多所大學(xué)可能會關(guān)門倒閉。其余的將會為了生存而徹底改變自己。
A new term
新學(xué)期
Like all revolutions, the one taking place in higher education will have victims. Many towns and cities rely on universities. In some ways MOOCs will reinforce inequality both among students (the talented will be much more comfortable than the weaker outside the structured university environment) and among teachers (superstar lecturers will earn a fortune, to the fury of their less charismatic colleagues).
同所有的革命一樣，發(fā)生在高等教育領(lǐng)域的這場革命也會有受害者。許多城鎮(zhèn)都依賴于大學(xué)。從某種程度上來講，MOOC會同時強(qiáng)化存在于學(xué)生（在傳統(tǒng)大學(xué)環(huán)境之外，天分高的學(xué)生的適應(yīng)能力高于弱者）和教師（明星教師會有大筆的收入，會招致不那么有魅力的同事的不滿）中的不平等。
Politicians will inevitably come under pressure to halt this revolution. They should remember that state spending should benefit society as a whole, not protect tenured professors from competition. The reinvention of universities will benefit many more people than it hurts. Students in the rich world will have access to higher education at lower cost and greater convenience. MOOCs' flexibility appeals to older people who need retraining: edX, another provider, says that the median age of its online students in America is 31. In the emerging world online courses also offer a way for countries like Brazil to leap-frog Western ones and supply higher education much more cheaply (see article). And education has now become a global market: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology discovered Battushig Myanganbayar, a remarkably talented Mongolian teenager, through an online electronics course.
政客會不可避免地面臨叫停這場革命的壓力。但是，他們應(yīng)當(dāng)謹(jǐn)記：政府開支應(yīng)該惠及整個社會，
不應(yīng)當(dāng)讓保障的教授免于競爭。大學(xué)革命所惠及的人將會遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過它所傷害的人。富裕國家的學(xué)生將會以更低的費(fèi)用和更大的便利接受高等教育。MOOC的靈活性對需要再培訓(xùn)的年紀(jì)更大之人也有吸引力。另一家提供商edX稱，在美國，在線學(xué)生的年齡中位數(shù)是31歲。在新興世界中，在線課程還能為巴西這樣的國家提供一種迅速超西方國家和提供更便宜的高等教育的方法。如今，教育已成為一個全球市場：麻省理工通過在線電子學(xué)課程，發(fā)現(xiàn)了一位非常有天分的蒙古少年巴圖詩蒙·延甘巴亞。
Rather than propping up the old model, governments should make the new one work better. They can do so by backing common standards for accreditation. In Brazil, for instance, students completing courses take a government-run exam. In most Western countries it would likewise make sense to have a single, independent organisation that certifies exams.
政府不應(yīng)再為老模式提供支持，而是應(yīng)當(dāng)讓新模式運(yùn)作得更好。他們可以通過支持通用認(rèn)證標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的方式做到這一點(diǎn)。比如說，巴西的學(xué)生會在課程結(jié)束后，參加由政府組織的測試。在大多數(shù)西方國家中，最好是建立一個唯一的獨(dú)立考試認(rèn)證組織。
Reinventing an ancient institution will not be easy. But it does promise better education for many more people. Rarely have need and opportunity so neatly come together.
徹底改變一種古老的機(jī)構(gòu)不會是一件容易的事情。但是，這確實能為更多的人帶來更好的教育。機(jī)不可失。
From the print edition: Leaders
作者: barbarian
時間: 2014-6-30 16:22
the premium employers place on degrees
加之溢價雇主對于學(xué)位的重視
此句翻譯有問題
此句是省略that的定語從句
the premium that employers place on degrees
意思是：雇主對于學(xué)位的重視
作者: 博愛利物浦
時間: 2014-7-1 23:23
They should remember that state spending should benefit society as a whole, not protect tenured professors from competition 后面這半句感覺你翻譯的不是很順暢 應(yīng)該是 他們應(yīng)當(dāng)謹(jǐn)記：政府開支應(yīng)該惠及整個社會，而不應(yīng)當(dāng)使得那些終身教授免于競爭。
作者: sddfax
時間: 2014-7-2 18:09
For two decades the cost of going to college in America has risen by 1.6 percentage points more than inflation every year.這里的 more than inflation 不是形容前面的 1.6百分比 的嗎？ 成本每年漲1.6個百分點(diǎn)比通脹率還高
作者: AnneloveABC
時間: 2014-7-2 18:30
學(xué)習(xí)了
，下面是幾個小地方而已。
an online master's degree in computing
提供計算機(jī)學(xué)士學(xué)位的在線課程
碩士學(xué)位
between $30 and $100
30美元-50美元
100美元
meet each other
互相見面
結(jié)識彼此
作者: sddfax
時間: 2014-7-2 21:33
那么如果想要more than inflation 修飾１．６個百分點(diǎn)的話，是不是應(yīng)該在more than 之前加逗號，變成For two decades the cost of going to college in America has risen by 1.6 percentage points ,more than inflation every year.這樣就可以翻譯成 成本每年漲1.6個百分點(diǎn)比通脹率還高??？
作者: 花未全開月未圓
時間: 2014-7-5 23:59
翻譯的不錯，評論也很精彩！多謝！
作者: tk528
時間: 2014-7-6 23:13
感謝分享，頂?。?！
作者: xierer
時間: 2014-7-8 00:05
本帖最后由 xierer 于 2014-7-10 23:58 編輯
"edX, another provider, says that the median age of its online students in America is 31. "
原譯文："另一家提供商edX稱，在美國，在線學(xué)生的年齡中位數(shù)是31歲。"
the median age 中位與平均都可這么表達(dá)，樓主自己看上下文權(quán)衡吧
中位數(shù)無意義
作者: Neil0470
時間: 2014-7-9 17:24
幾點(diǎn)小意見：
China has added nearly 30m places in 20 years.
中國在20年內(nèi)擴(kuò)招了3000萬名大學(xué)生。
the tendency of costs to soar in labour-intensive sectors with stagnant productivity
勞動力密集產(chǎn)業(yè)成本的急劇攀升趨勢與生產(chǎn)力停滯并存。
great deal
劃算的買賣
作者: 船長秘制果醬！
時間: 2014-7-10 08:19
樓主的翻譯一直質(zhì)量很高啊~幾點(diǎn)小建議，請多指教~
1. Some 3.5m Americans and 5m Europeans will graduate this summer.
今年夏天，美國將有350萬學(xué)生，歐洲將有500萬學(xué)生從大學(xué)畢業(yè)。
some是“約”，稍微做點(diǎn)修正會更好~
2. Now a revolution has begun (see article), thanks to three forces: rising costs, changing demand and disruptive technology.
如今，在三種力量——日益增長的成本，不斷變化的要求和摧毀一切的技術(shù)——的作用下，一場革命已經(jīng)開始。
這里的disruptive technology是“顛覆性技術(shù)”的意思，是一個術(shù)語（就是那些外國佬隨便發(fā)明的=。 =），表示會給現(xiàn)有技術(shù)和生產(chǎn)帶來毀滅性的沖擊的技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，如蘋果之于諾基亞。
3. the premium employers place on degrees
premium employers 指“優(yōu)質(zhì)雇主”，就是比較好的單位。
4. But for an increasing number of students who have gone deep into debt—especially the 47% in America and 28% in Britain who do not complete their course—it is plainly not value for money.
但是，對于那些越來越多的已經(jīng)背上了沉重債務(wù)的學(xué)生來說，尤其是對47%的美國學(xué)生和沒有完成課程的28%的英國學(xué)生來說，大學(xué)學(xué)位根本不值這么多。
這句也許需要調(diào)整下語序，個人認(rèn)為這“47%的美國學(xué)生和28%的英國學(xué)生”都應(yīng)該是“沒有完成課程的”，雖然“47%”這個比率有點(diǎn)聳人聽聞！
5. Now the MOOC, or “Massive Open Online Course”, is offering students the chance to listen to star lecturers and get a degree for a fraction of the cost of attending a university.
如今，大規(guī)模開放式網(wǎng)絡(luò)課程（MOOC）正在給學(xué)生提供機(jī)會，使他們得以聆聽明星教師的講課，并且只需花費(fèi)上大學(xué)費(fèi)用的一部分就可獲得學(xué)位。
"a fraction of the cost"強(qiáng)調(diào)的是“花的學(xué)費(fèi)只需要正常大學(xué)學(xué)費(fèi)一小部分”，建議翻譯出來。
作者: Neil0470
時間: 2014-7-11 10:43
前后文是“Some 3.5m Americans and 5m Europeans will graduate this summer. In the emerging world universities are booming: China has added nearly 30m places in 20 years. ” 聯(lián)系前后文可見，作者本意是大學(xué)生的數(shù)量，"place"不是教室等空間，而是“席位”。
其次，從邏輯上理解，20年新增3000萬教室。按照每間教室里容納30人計算，能容納9億人，我們應(yīng)該沒有那么多的學(xué)生，也用不了那么多教室。
以上僅供參考。
作者: amynana
時間: 2014-8-29 15:44
感謝樓主的翻譯。認(rèn)真學(xué)習(xí)了一番
