第一步.
第一, 你需要一個圖表服務?,F(xiàn)在很多電子交易平臺都有圖表和指標, 這應不成問題。
在一小時圖上, 選一個你喜歡的貨幣對。棒型圖或K線圖都一樣。在圖上加上三樣東西: 1) 169 ema (expotential moving average), 2) 144 ema 和3) 12 ema。
144 和 169 ema畫出的就是我所謂的隧道。12ema是非常有效的過濾器, 我要你經(jīng)常放在圖上, 我會在過濾器部份詳述。
第二步.
記憶或?qū)懴乱韵耭ibonacci數(shù)字, 并放在你的交易熒光屏旁邊: 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377。用在交易上的數(shù)字有 55, 89, 144, 233和377。
第三步.
等待價格到達隧道當中, 當價格突破隧道上方, 你買進; 當價格跌破隧道下方, 你賣出。
第四部.
止損和反向是放在隧道的另一邊。
第五部.
當市場往你下單的方向走, 你在fibonacci數(shù)字逐一出場, 你留有最后一部份倉位, 真到以下情況出現(xiàn): 1) 市場達到了最后一個fibonacci數(shù)字(377點), 或2)市場最終回到了隧道而且去了另一邊。
過濾器
過濾器是增加整體盈利或減少虧損。如果過濾器不能做到以上兩樣目的, 我不會采用它們。如果過濾器只能增加你10%的盈利而卻錯過了1/3的交易, 或者減少了10%-20%的損失, 卻錯過了一半的盈利, 那又是否一個好的過濾器呢? 我相信你明白我的意思。
以下是我們隊伍用的過濾器。(是, 我們是一隊人, 三個人。我們交易GBP/USD, USD/CHF, 和S&P e-mini futures。每個人都有專長。我是做GBP/USD的。我們每個人看一只貨幣。市場交易時段, 會有其中一人常在熒光屏前面?;ハ噍喠髯? 我們只用隧道方法交易。)
1) 在一小時圖上加上12ema和其余的指標。當所有東西都在同一價位 (隧道, 現(xiàn)價, 12ema), 你要坐直和留意了。當市場價位突破了隧道, 表示一個大波動很可能出現(xiàn)。我不用江恩, 因為這給我時間, 時間的平方和價格都在均勢。一旦突破, 一觸即發(fā)。
要證明嗎? 回去看看你喜歡的貨幣對。在2005年第一季里, 單是這個過濾器在USD/CHF上已經(jīng)產(chǎn)生20單交易, 其中19單是盈利的。其實在我寫這篇文的時候, 還有一單沒平的倉位。但我不是負責USD/CHF的, 我只是看著倉位, 這倉位還沒平掉。
這個過濾器很有幫助, 我們看見這過濾器會加倉。
當你看回圖表, 會發(fā)現(xiàn)很多次這過濾器會在波動后幾小時出現(xiàn), 是一個非常有效的過濾器。
我們說的'同一價位'可以是五點以內(nèi)。有時候會是完全同一價位, 但我認為你不必吹毛求玭。在五點內(nèi)是足夠了。
2) 在亞洲市時, 我們不會開新倉。任何在紐約5PM到紐約子夜是不會開新倉的。已有的倉位會繼續(xù)關(guān)注, 別的都一樣。我們在fibonacci位置盈利平倉。如果我們錯過了一個波動, 就錯過了。錯過了的只是機會成本。亞洲市的顛簸會最終構(gòu)成更大的成本。
3) 消息公布對價位造成影響, 我們也不在那時候開新倉?,F(xiàn)時只有一天, 就是每個月第一個星期五紐約時間8:30PM的非農(nóng)業(yè)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)。已有的頭寸會照常關(guān)注。
4) 當隧道很窄(很多時候都是這樣), 不要把止損放在隧道的另一邊。如果你這樣做, 會被震蕩止損出場。用小時圖上的支持或阻力位來設(shè)止損。
如果你是新手, 可能覺得這個過濾器比較麻煩。如果你對趨勢線, 三角形, 旗形, 細長旗形或支持/阻力位都不熟悉, 那你回去先學習好再回來。這是簡單但必要的勸告。
我不是說你會那些技術(shù)術(shù)語, 這事就會很簡單。不。說明一句, 每個交易模式都有它的缺陷。在隧道交易上也一樣。如何放止損是一種藝術(shù), 不是一個科學。
5) 我們要的是一個干脆的突破(一跟棒)隧道邊, 這意味著你幾乎一入場便會盈利。但你不會經(jīng)常得到干脆的突破。當市場價留在隧道內(nèi)徘徊時間越長, 就越大機會你是以突破支持/阻力位, 而不是隧道邊來進場。
6) 我們不做二流(反主流)的訊號。如果GBP/USD主流趨勢是往上, 我們不會因為價格跌破隧道下邊而開新倉。為什么? 因此這樣情況下, 從ema跌破55點的機會率不會很高。這是經(jīng)驗告訴我們的。我不會很英雄地說"這次不同的。"當市價回到并突破隧道上邊, 我們會繼續(xù)做多。
如果我要告訴你甚么是主流趨勢, 那我認為你并沒有留心最近的價格走勢。
在上落市時, 我們空頭多頭都做
THE TUNNEL METHOD (隧道交易方法)
Step 1.First, you need a charting service. Since most all electronic trading platforms have charts with technical indicators, this shouldn't be a problem.
Create a 1 hour chart on whatever currency pairs interest you. Barcharts or candlesticks really make no difference. Overlay on this 3 things: 1) a 169 period [1 hour] ema [exponential moving average], 2) a 144 period [1 hour] ema, and finally 3) a 12 period
The 144 and 169 ema's create what I call the "tunnel". The 12 ema is an extremely valuable filter that you will want to have there all the time. I will talk more about this in the filter section.
Step 2.Memorize or write down and keep next to your trading screen the following fibonacci number sequence: 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377. For trading purposes, the numbers of
Step 3.Wait for the market to come into the area of the "tunnel". When it breaks ABOVE the upper tunnel boundary, you go long. When it breaks BELOW the lower tunnel boundary, you go short.
Step 4.Stops and reverse are placed on the other side of the tunnel.
Step 5.As the market trades in your direction, you take partial profits at the successive fib numbers respectively, with the final portion of your position left on until one of the following conditons occur: 1) market hits the last fib number [377 pips]
Example: GBP/USD is trading at 1.8500. The ema's are as follows: 144- 1.8494, 169- 1.8512. The market breaks 1.8494, and you sell at 1.8492. Your stop and reverse is now at 1.8512. Over the following hours, market starts to go down. 40 minutes after you put position on, cable is at 1.8440. You can use for computation purposes either tunnel boundary or the median of the tunnel. Ema's are still the same, so if you use the median, 55 from 1.8503 is 1.8448. You should have taken part of the position off at 1.8448. Market does nothing rest of day. Stop can be moved down to protect position or left alone at tunnel.
This is a fairly typical example.
If you were to just stick to this basic model, you account would grow very well over time.
In case you haven't figured it out, this model cuts your losses very short. By definiton, you can't lose very much on a single trade from your initial entry position.. On the other side, you take some quick profits at the 55 level which satisfies the scalper in you, and you have positioned yourself for bigger profits in the long run should the market keep going in your favor. By definition, you are letting profits run.
The Achilles heal of this model is when the market chops around the tunnel and gets you in and out multiple times for small losses. I will cover how to deal with this in the filters section.
That's it. This is the model. Fairly simple in its design, and easy to remember. Has all the things every local wants in a model, except the quick 2 pip scalps, which you can't do anyway. Cuts losses, and lets profits run. Yet for its design simplicity, the thought behind is more complex. Time to talk about that.
THE FILTERS
Filters are used to increase overall profitability and/or reduce overall losses. If a filter does not do one of these two things, then I do not use it. What good is a filter if it raises your profitability by 10% but only gets you into 1/3 as many trades? What good is a filter if it reduces losses by 10% - 20% , but also reduces profitability on every trade by half? I think you get the point.
Here are the filters the vegas team uses. [Yes, I have a team. There are 3 of us. We trade GBP/USD, USD/CHF, and the S&P e-mini futures contract. Each has a specialty. Mine is GBP/USD. We are each responsible for our main pair. One of us is always at the screen when markets are open. Positions are covered by other partners when away. We only tunnel trade.]
1.)
Put the 12 ema [1 hour] on your screen with the rest of your indicators. When everything is at the same price [tunnel, current market price, 12 ema] sit up and take notice. When the market breaks away from the tunnel, there is a very high probability of a strong market move coming.
Need proof? Well, go back on your favorite currency pair and check it out. In the first quarter of 2005, this filter alone produced 20 trades, 19 which were profitable in USD/CHF. In fact, as I write this, 1 trade is still on from about 3 handles ago. Since I am not responsible for Swissy, I'm not the guy pushing the button, only monitoring it when I'm at the screen [changing stops when needed, etc.]. But, the position is still on.
This filter is so profitable, we increase the size of our trading position when we see it develop and then happen.
When you go back and check it out, you will notice many times how it just misses a move by a few hours. It is an extremely profitable filter.
We also define "same price" as being within 5 pips or so of being equal. Sometimes it turns out the signal is exact, but I don't think you have to split hairs on this. Within 5 pips is good enough for us.
2.)
We do not initiate new currency trading positions based on tunnel trading during the Asian time-frame. Anything between 5pm NY and Midnight NY is ignored for entry of new positions. Positions that are on are monitored as normal, i.e., everything else is the same. We will take profits if fib levels are hit. If we miss a move, then we miss a move. A missed move is just an opportunity cost. Chop-chop in Asia will eventually cost you more money than it is worth.
3.)
News days that can have a significant affect on prices are ignored. That's right, we skip them for entry of new positions. Currently there is only 1 day per month which qualifies, and that is US Non-Farm Payrolls [NFP] which comes at 8:30 am NY time the first Friday of each month. Positions that are on are monitored as normal.
4.)
When the tunnel is very narrow [most of the time], do not just put stop on the other side of tunnel. If you do you get whipsawed to death. Use the hourly charts and the most recent hours of support and res. to make the call.
If you are a newbie to trading, you will find this to be the most troublesome filter. If you are not familiar with trendlines, triangles, flags, pennants, and support and res. levels, then go get the eduation and come back. Simple but necessary advice.
I don't mean to infer that just because you know this technical stuff it's going to be a walk in the park. It's not. Let's make one thing perfectly clear. EVERY model has its vulnerable spot that seem to increase losses. For tunnel trading, this is one of the scenarios. Putting in the right stop is an art, not a science.
5.)
We look for clean moves [1 bar] through the tunnel. This means your into profits almost from the get-go. You will not always get the clean moves. The longer the market stays in the tunnel chopping around, the higher the probability our entry decision will be made on a break of support or res. instead of the tunnel boundaries.
6.)
We do not trade minor [contra-major] trend signals in a strong up or down market price trend. If the GBP/USD is in a strong price uptrend, we will not initiate new short positions on a break of the lower tunnel boundary. Why? Because the probability of success in getting past 55 from the ema is not very good. Past history tells us that, so I'm not looking to be the hero here and say "This time it's different." When market comes back through the tunnel on the upside, we will get back in on the long side.
If I have to tell you when the market is in a strong price move, I don't think you have been paying attention to the price movements of late.
In a range-bound market, which we define as a market between 3 - 5 handles [or lower] in a 5 week time-frame, we trade both sides.
Now, that's all we use. Can you use more? Can you invent your own? Can You change some of the definitions? Yes, absolutely. Invent your own filters, use an Elliot Wave filter, anything you think will help your trading.
SUGGESTED MODEL SYSTEM
Do I really need to mention money management?
I didn't think so.
At a minimum you should be able to do 3 units to implement tunnel trading. Use the 55, 89, and 144 levels to take 1/3 off at each level. If you can do 4 units, use 55, 89, 144, and 233. 5 units is the preferable level, and you use 55, 89, 144, 233, and let one unit ride until crosses over tunnel boundary or it reaches 377.
Of course, you can make your units any size you want. For smaller traders, a unit size may be 10,000. If you do not have the money to trade 30,000 of something, then I would advise you to save up and come back when you do. If your account has $2,000 in it, you can easily implement tunnel trading with 10k units.
One of the greatest advantages of this model is its flexibility in its design to allow you to choose the level of risk/reward you desire in trading. You can make this as aggressive or as conservative as fits your style. I will give an example of each. These are just examples, I'm not saying you have to do this. I'm only giving you these two to stimulate your brain. In the following day and weeks I am confident you will find an appropriate level for yourself.
Example 1 - Very Aggressive
Tunnel is pivot level for buy/sell. Above tunnel, buy breaks, sell at fib numbers. At 233 an 377, fade the move for retracement. Below tunnel, sell rallies, buy at the fib numbers. Use previous fib numbers in the move as stop loss points. This is very aggresive, and woul be appropriate for very short-term traders who have a time-frame of day-trading.
Example 2 - Very Conservative
Uses basic tunnel system with 12 ema. Only initiates on this signal. Looking for best possible probability trade. Willing to give up more profitability in return for less risk. Trades three units. Uses fib numbers 55, and 89 for 1/3 each. Leaves the other unit on until 233 or market price crosses over tunnel boundary. Allows trader to catch short-term [1-5 day] profit points, and also allows him/her to ride the major trend if one develops.
Like I said, these are just two of an infinite number of risk/reward senarios you can develop using this model. This is not some rigid system, where you have to do this or that. It is adaptable, with no right or wrong answers. This is why many locals from soybeans to bonds to gold and silver, oil, etc. use it. I've seen some people who have transformed this into a model you wouldn't recognize without knowing what tunnel trading offers.
When you get right down to it, once you have adapted it into your own trading style and personal risk model, tunnel trading will give you all you want. Momentum to catch the bigger moves over time, early profit points that allow you to catch short-term movements, and the lowest risk you can possibly have in a trade, because you are only risking 10 -25 pips on each trade. If your odds of success on each trade were 50-50 [they aren't this low], over time you would make a fortune. If you don't believe me, then do the math.
Precisely because of this flexibility tunnel trading is the best model I have ever seen.