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杠桿在資產(chǎn)管理中的應(yīng)用| Leverage in asset management | 灰?guī)r金融科技
原創(chuàng) Dorian君 灰?guī)r金融科技 2020-10-12 21:35
Asset managers can use leverage to enhance returns. Outside hedge funds, such leverage is modest as share of assets under management. However, considering the huge volume of assets, changes in buy-side leverage still have a significant impact on financial conditions, particularly in emerging markets. Also, both theory and empirical evidence suggest that leverage is pro-cyclical.
資產(chǎn)經(jīng)理可以利用杠桿來提高收益。在外部對沖基金中,這種杠桿作用僅相當(dāng)于所管理資產(chǎn)的份額。但是,考慮到龐大的資產(chǎn)規(guī)模,買方杠桿的變化仍然會對財務(wù)狀況產(chǎn)生重大影響,尤其是在新興市場中。同樣,理論和經(jīng)驗證據(jù)都表明,杠桿是順周期的。
Avalos. Fernando, Ramon Moreno and Tania Romero, “Leverage on the buy side”, BIS Working Papers, No 517
http://www.bis.org/publ/work517.htm
The below are excerpts from the paper. Headings, links and cursive text have been added.
The 1×1 of leverage on the buy side
買方市場(對沖基金/共有基金/主權(quán)基金)等的1比1金融杠桿
“Leverage used by an investment fund can [use]…funding leverage, which involves outright borrowing, and instrument leverage [also called synthetic leverage], implemented through derivative contracts that amplify the sensitivity of portfolio returns to the underlying asset risk factors.”
“投資基金使用的杠桿可以使用涉及直接借款的融資杠桿,以及通過衍生品合同實施的工具杠桿[也稱為合成杠桿],從而放大了投資組合收益對潛在資產(chǎn)風(fēng)險因素的敏感性?!?div style="height:15px;">
“[The figure below] represents the typical balance sheet of a fund. On the source side we have its capital structure, comprising debt and the assets under management (AUM). Debt corresponds to short cash positions (or short-term borrowing) and short security positions. AUM is the difference between the fund′s asset and liability positions, and represent the total claim individual investors have on the investing pool. On the asset side we have cash held in long positions, securities held in long positions and margin, i.e. collateral typically requested by lenders in order to extend credit. Derivatives can be assets or liabilities depending on whether they are held long or short, but they are in effect off-balance sheet contingent claims. The relative size of all these different parts will depend on the type of fund and portfolio strategy. For instance, hedge funds are likely to have the largest borrowing relative to AUM, whereas passive mutual funds aimed at retail investors are likely to have minimal debt and relatively small long cash positions. Distressed debt funds use little or no leverage and keep a large share of their portfolio in cash.”
下圖表格代表基金的典型資產(chǎn)負債表。在來源方面,我們擁有其資本結(jié)構(gòu),包括債務(wù)和管理資產(chǎn)(AUM)。債務(wù)對應(yīng)于空頭現(xiàn)金頭寸(或短期借款)和空頭擔(dān)保頭寸。AUM是基金資產(chǎn)和負債頭寸之間的差額,代表個人投資者對投資池的總債權(quán)。在資產(chǎn)方面,我們擁有多頭頭寸持有的現(xiàn)金,多頭頭寸持有的證券和保證金,即貸方通常要求提供抵押品以擴展信貸。衍生工具可以是資產(chǎn)或負債,具體取決于持有的是多頭還是空頭,但實際上它們是表外或有債權(quán)。所有這些不同部分的相對規(guī)模將取決于基金類型和投資組合策略。例如,對沖基金相對于資產(chǎn)管理規(guī)??赡苡凶畲蟮慕栀J,而針對散戶投資者的被動型共同基金則可能負債最少且長期現(xiàn)金頭寸相對較小。陷入困境的債務(wù)基金幾乎沒有使用杠桿,甚至沒有杠桿,并且將大量投資組合保留為現(xiàn)金。
“Leverage is usually defined as…gross leverage, net leverage and long leverage. Gross leverage adds the short and long positions in securities, divided by AUM. This measure is very conservative, since it treats the short and long positions as independent sources of revenue, while in many cases they are part of a single bet and tend to hedge each other. As a result, gross leverage tends to overstate economic exposure. Net leverage is the difference between long and short positions in risky assets, which corrects the bias of gross leverage but does not account for the risk created by long or short positions that are effectively independent bets. Thus this measure is likely to understate risk.
杠桿通常被定義為總杠桿,凈杠桿和多頭杠桿??偢軛U(Gross leverage)增加了證券的空頭和多頭頭寸,除以資產(chǎn)管理規(guī)模的水平(AUM)。這項措施非常保守,因為它將空頭和多頭頭寸視為獨立的收入來源,而在許多情況下,它們是同一筆賭注的一部分,往往會相互對沖。結(jié)果,總杠桿水平往往會放大經(jīng)濟風(fēng)險。凈杠桿率是指風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)的多頭和空頭頭寸之間的差額,該差額糾正了總杠桿率的偏差,但沒有考慮由有效或獨立投注的多頭頭寸或空頭頭寸產(chǎn)生的風(fēng)險。 因此,該措施可能會低估金融市場風(fēng)險。
Finally, long leverage is the ratio of long security positions to AUM. This is probably the easiest and more common way to think about leverage. It is readily available for US-based institutions, because the SEC requires this information from any fund managing over USD 100 million.  All the above measures of leverage also ignore the exposure from off-balance sheet derivative positions.”
最后,多頭杠桿是多頭安全頭寸與AUM的比率。這可能是考慮杠桿作用的最簡單,最常見的方法。美國證券交易委員會要求任何管理超過1億美元資金的基金提供此信息,因為美國證券交易委員會要求這些信息。上述所有杠桿措施也忽略了表外衍生工具頭寸帶來的風(fēng)險。
“Leveraged portfolios enhance the gains of successful investment strategies, at the cost of magnifying the losses when financial conditions sour. Consequently they may be subject to severe allocation reversals and fire sales, which could sharpen the return volatility of the assets included in such portfolios.”
Different funds have different leverage
不同的基金有不同的杠桿
“Since [the great financial crisis]…asset managers have quickly increased their footprint in global financing, helped by the sharp retrenchment of banks nursing their balance sheets back to health…Since 2009, bond financing has become prevalent in global international financing, with an expansion exceeding USD4 trillion, whereas cross border bank lending has contracted by almost USD2 trillion…Unconventional monetary policies in advanced economies have squeezed returns while reducing borrowing costs, which in principle creates an incentive for asset managers to use more leverage.”
“自08年金融危機以來...資產(chǎn)管理人迅速增加了其在全球融資中的足跡,這得益于銀行大幅裁員,使資產(chǎn)負債表恢復(fù)健康...自2009年以來,債券融資已在全球國際融資中盛行, 擴張規(guī)模超過4萬億美元,而跨境銀行貸款卻縮水了近2萬億美元……發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體的非常規(guī)貨幣政策在降低回報成本的同時降低了借貸成本,從原則上講激勵了資產(chǎn)管理公司使用更多的杠桿。”
“Using information provided by a market data vendor…[leverage] seems to vary considerably depending on the type of fund… In most of the analysis…we focus on funding leverage by using a measure closely related to long leverage… the ratio of long security positions in excess of AUM divided by AUM….Equity fund portfolios seem to be minimally leveraged, while fixed income funds tend to resort abundantly to borrowed money. Funds dedicated to global markets or advanced economies had little debt in their capital structure, whereas debt in leveraged EM fixed income funds was close to 30 percent of AUM towards the end of our sample period.“
“使用由市場數(shù)據(jù)供應(yīng)商提供的信息,采用的金融杠桿取決于基金或是策略本身的類型。因此在大多數(shù)分析中,我們通過使用與長期杠桿密切相關(guān)的措施來關(guān)注資金杠桿以及長期持有頭寸的比率(超過總資產(chǎn)規(guī)模AUM的頭寸除以AUM)。股票基金投資組合的杠桿作用似乎很小,而固定收益基金則傾向于大量借入資金。面向全球市場或發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體的基金的資本結(jié)構(gòu)幾乎沒有債務(wù),而在我們的樣本期結(jié)束時,杠桿型新興市場固定收益基金的債務(wù)接近AUM的30%?!?div style="height:15px;">
“We found that leverage on the buy side is not negligible [for emerging markets]. The number of funds using leverage is relatively small in our sample, but their size is about three times that of their unleveraged peers. They control more than 30 percent of AUM in their sector [at the end of 2014] down from 50 percent around 2010, making them quite significant players in their target markets…Only four of the 87 funds in our database report themselves as 'hedge funds,’ all belonging to the same parent company.”
“我們發(fā)現(xiàn),對于新興市場而言,買方的杠桿作用微不足道。在我們的樣本中,使用杠桿的基金數(shù)量相對較少,但其規(guī)模約為未杠桿杠桿的同類基金的三倍。他們控制著自己部門(截至2014年底)超過30%的資產(chǎn)管理規(guī)模,而2010年約為50%,這使其成為目標(biāo)市場的重要參與者。我們數(shù)據(jù)庫中的87只基金中只有四只稱自己為“對沖基金” ,都屬于同一母公司?!?div style="height:15px;">
Determinants of leverage on the buy side
買方杠桿的決定因素
“In line with theory, we find that asset managers increase leverage when expected returns increase, and tend to reduce it when market risk perception (or aversion) increases, or when funding costs or funding risks increase. Leverage is also pro-cyclical, in the sense that fund capital gains spur further increases of borrowing.”
“與理論相符,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)資產(chǎn)經(jīng)理會在預(yù)期收益增加時增加杠桿,而在市場風(fēng)險認(rèn)知(或厭惡情緒)增加或融資成本或融資風(fēng)險增加時傾向于降低杠桿。 從資金資本收益刺激借貸進一步增加的意義上講,杠桿作用也是順周期的?!?div style="height:15px;">
Other academic work supports this pro-cyclicality:
“Acharya and Viswanathan (2011) and Stein (2009) focus on borrowing costs as the main drivers of leverage, finding through different mechanisms that good times tend to increase leverage substantially. Price shocks during those times are particularly damaging because they force a larger extent of deleveraging.”
“Ang et al (2011) use a richer database than ours to address empirically a similar question on the determinants of the leverage decision of asset managers… They find that…past returns are not significant, whereas market risk at either the fund or macro levels can be relevant, and macro measures of borrowing costs are usually inversely related to leverage.”
“Wang and Wang (2010) model the problem of the fee-maximising, risk-neutral investment manager…Consistent with some anecdotal evidence, asset managers have little incentive to sell assets and reduce leverage unless forced to, once the risky asset price has fallen. However, optimal leverage tends to decrease quickly with higher transaction costs and underlying asset price volatility, whereas it will increase with expected returns.”
其他學(xué)術(shù)工作也支持這種周期性:
1. Acharya和Viswanathan(2011)和Stein(2009)將借款成本作為杠桿的主要驅(qū)動力,通過不同的機制發(fā)現(xiàn),好時機往往會大大提高杠桿率。在那段時期,價格沖擊尤其具有破壞性,因為它們迫使更大范圍的去杠桿化。”
2. Ang等人(2011)使用比我們更豐富的數(shù)據(jù)庫,以經(jīng)驗方式解決了資產(chǎn)管理者杠桿決策決定因素的類似問題。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)過去的收益并不重要,而基金或宏觀層面的市場風(fēng)險卻很大??赡芟嚓P(guān),而借貸成本的宏觀指標(biāo)通常與杠桿成反比。”
3. Wang and Wang(2010)建模了費用最大化,風(fēng)險中性的投資經(jīng)理的問題。根據(jù)一些軼事證據(jù),除非風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)價格下跌,否則除非被迫,資產(chǎn)經(jīng)理幾乎沒有動力出售資產(chǎn)和降低杠桿率。但是,隨著交易成本和潛在資產(chǎn)價格波動的增加,最佳杠桿往往會迅速下降,而隨著預(yù)期收益的增加,策略可用的最佳杠桿會增加?!?div style="height:15px;">“The tightening of capital controls on inflows in emerging economies seems to be associated with leverage increases, which might be explained by reluctance on the part of portfolio managers to give up a profitable position because of returns-unfriendly regulation. Instead, they would choose to increase leverage in order to preserve higher expected returns, even at the cost of assuming more risk… In this way, 'capital flow management’ actions taken by large emerging economies, which tend to command large portfolio weights, might be causing a 'policy spillover’ towards other emerging economies that are commonly represented in the portfolios of global asset managers.”
“對新興經(jīng)濟體流入的資本管制的收緊似乎與對沖基金行業(yè)開始增加杠桿這件事有關(guān),這可以用投資組合經(jīng)理不愿因為對于基金回報率來說更加嚴(yán)格以及不友好的金融監(jiān)管而放棄獲利頭寸來解釋。
相反,他們會選擇提高杠桿率以保持更高的預(yù)期收益,即使以承擔(dān)更多風(fēng)險為代價。通過這種方式,大型新興經(jīng)濟體采取的“資本流管理”行動可能會占據(jù)較大的投資組合權(quán)重,對其他通常在全球資產(chǎn)管理公司投資組合中體現(xiàn)的新興經(jīng)濟體造成“政策溢出效果”。”
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