HOW fast are incomes growing? The answer swings elections; Ronald Reagan, on his way to victory in 1980, told voters to ask themselves if they were better off than they were four years earlier. It also shifts the political spectrum. Paltry wage growth since the financial crisis has fed populism in both parties. According to official statistics, real (ie, inflation-adjusted) median household income in 2014 was only 0.7% higher than in 1989, when the Gipper left office. It is a common refrain that since then rising inequality, trade and outsourcing have left middle America languishing behind. But several trends make household-income statistics look gloomier than they really are.
收入增長的速度有多快?這個問題對選舉的影響很大。1980年,里根在即將贏得大選時,曾問選民們想想自己是否比四年前生活得更好。這個問題也改變了政治圖譜。自從金融危機(jī)以來,微薄的工資增長讓兩黨內(nèi)的民粹主義都得以壯大。據(jù)官方統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),2014年美國家庭收入中位數(shù)(經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整)僅比1989年里根下臺時高出0.7%。大家普遍認(rèn)為,在那之后不斷增長的貧富差距、貿(mào)易和外包行為使得美國中產(chǎn)階級逐漸衰弱。不過,有些趨勢會使家庭收入的統(tǒng)計(jì)看起來比實(shí)際情況更令人沮喪。
Take household size. Since 1989, households have become, on average, 3.4% smaller, as fertility has fallen and living alone has become more common. In 1989 there were 2.63 Americans per household; today there are 2.54. Smaller households mean fewer earners (and fewer mouths to feed) in each, lowering median incomes without necessarily making anyone worse off. At the same time, higher earners are increasingly likely to marry one another. This pushes up inequality between households, but not between individuals. Since 1989, the real earnings of the median worker—a measure affected by neither of these trends—have grown by fully 13%.
按家庭規(guī)模來算,1989年以來,生育率的下降讓獨(dú)居也變得越來越普遍,美國的家庭規(guī)模平均縮小了3.4%。在1989年,美國每個家庭的平均人口是2.63,而現(xiàn)在是2.54。家庭人口變少意味著每個家庭里有有收入的成員減少(同時每個家庭需供養(yǎng)的人口也更少),中位收入減少,但不一定會使人們生活得更糟。與此同時,收入更高者之間相互聯(lián)姻。雖然這推動了家庭之間的貧富差距,卻沒有擴(kuò)大個體之間的貧富差距。1989年之后,中位勞動者的實(shí)際收入——一種不受任何趨勢影響的計(jì)算辦法——足足上升了13%。
All that growth, however, came before 2000, lending credibility to Hillary Clinton’s claim that most workers have not seen a pay rise in 15 years. Small pay rises in the mid-2000s were wiped out by the financial crisis. But another trend is suppressing the recovery of incomes since the recession: ageing. Americans’ incomes usually peak in middle age, then decline as they head towards retirement. The median income of households headed by 45- to 54-year-olds in 2014 was $71,000; for households headed by 65- to 74-year-olds, it was only $45,000.
然而,這種增長只是出現(xiàn)在2000年之前,這讓希拉里·克林頓的話更可信了——她曾宣稱,大多數(shù)工人有15年沒有看到薪水上漲了。在2000年代中期,金融危機(jī)將小幅加薪一掃而光。但另一個趨勢則在抑制著經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退后的收入恢復(fù)現(xiàn)象:人口老齡化。美國人的收入通常在其中年時達(dá)到頂峰,然后逐漸下降,直至退休年齡。2014年,在美國中等收入的家庭中,戶主是45歲到54歲的,平均收入為7.1萬美元;而戶主是54歲到74歲的,平均收入只有4.5萬美元。
This matters because America has been greying. The oldest of the baby-boom generation began to retire in 2008. Because workers who were once cashing paycheques are now drawing pensions, this has held down average income growth. Between 2010 and 2014, real median household income grew by 0.3%. But a weighted average of the median income in each age-group, with the weights frozen to reflect the age profile of the population in 2010, is up by 1.9%. This suggests that ageing is a significant drag on the headline measure. (When the numbers are not adjusted for ageing, the weighted-average measure is up by only 0.7%, so the different construction of the two measures accounts for only some of the gap.)
之所以會這樣是因?yàn)槊绹丝谡诶淆g化。嬰兒潮一代里年齡最大的在 2008 年開始退休。這些曾經(jīng)領(lǐng)工資的人現(xiàn)在要領(lǐng)取養(yǎng)老金,因而這是長期壓制工資增長的一個原因。2010年到2014年間,中等收入家庭的收入平均只漲了0.3%。根據(jù)2010年的人口分布來制定的權(quán)重,在每個年齡段,收入的加權(quán)平均值上升了1.9%。這表明,人口老齡化明顯是總體收入水平衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的阻力。(當(dāng)這些數(shù)字不為老齡化作調(diào)整,中等收入家庭的收入加權(quán)平均值只上升了0.7%。因此,不同的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),確實(shí)造成差距。)
不過,有一點(diǎn)需要注意的是:雖然老年人現(xiàn)在的收入相比于工作年齡時較低,但他們是從最近幾十年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中獲益最多的人。例如,戶主是65歲到74歲的家庭收入比1989年類似的家庭收入高出30%。相比之下,由戶主是45 歲到 54歲的家庭,收入只低了 7%(見圖表)。
Why have the silver-haired done relatively well? Rising Social Security (public pension) payments are one answer. The median Social Security cheque has grown by 9% in real terms over the past decade. This is probably because today’s pensioners enjoyed rising incomes while they were working. Social Security entitlement grows with average wages, so rising wages in one decade deliver larger retirement cheques in the next.
為什么老年人的收入相對更好一些?社會保障(公共養(yǎng)老金)的支付增加是答案之一。在過去的十年中,社會保障的支付實(shí)際增長了9%。這可能是因?yàn)槿缃竦耐诵萑藛T在他們工作的時候享受到了工資增長。社會保障福利與平均工資一同增長,因此,在一個十年里的工資增長意味著要在下一個十年提供更多的退休金支付額。
This phenomenon diminishes, but does not eliminate, ageing’s drag on incomes. Exclude over-65s entirely from the figures, and the weighted-average median income, with 2010’s population weights, grew by 1.5% (rather than 1.9%) between 2010 and 2014.
這種現(xiàn)象在減少了卻沒有消除老齡化對于收入的提高阻礙。剔除65歲以上人群的數(shù)據(jù)以及加權(quán)平均的平均收入,以2010年美國人口數(shù)量計(jì)算,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)從2010年到2014年增長了1.5%(而不是1.9%)。
Gender matters, too. Among women, real median earnings are up 32% since 1989; for men, growth was just 4.5%. But as more women entered the workforce, their lower earnings probably reduced average wages. Reagan’s question was simple enough for individuals to answer. For a whole country, it is much harder.
性別同樣也影響著收入。在女性當(dāng)中,自 1989 年以后的平均實(shí)際收入上升了 32%;在男性中,平均收入只上升了4.5%。但是,隨著越來越多的女性進(jìn)入勞動力市場,她們的低收入可能會拉低平均工資水平。里根的問題對于個人來說很簡單,完全可以回答,但對于一個國家來說,它真的很難回答。
編譯:梁茜,福建師范大學(xué)外國語學(xué)院翻碩
審校&編輯:翻吧君
英文來源:經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人