June 10, 2008
Welcome to the first article, in The New Argument’s new serial on the modernization of China and India. In this four part series, we will explore the growth of these two states across four fields: Regime Legitimacy, Economic Influence, Military Prowess, and Resources. In this first part, we will look at Regime Legitimacy. Also included is an overarching introduction.
Part One: Regime Legitimacy
There are several factors that one must assess when determining the political power of a state. In this article I will examine the following four factors. First, there is legitimacy of the regime that is in power, if there is a government in place which is not supported by its population, there is no way that it could be taken seriously on the world stage. Also granting political power to a state is their influence in world economics. This is a tool that can be used to political ends, such as China exerting its influence upon American legislature as a result of its high levels of investment. Next is military prowess, one of the main reasons that America is the superpower that it is, is due to the fact that we have one of the most capable, technologically advanced forces in the world. Finally, one must turn to the resources that a country possesses. This issue plays a major role when identifying India and China as upcoming powers, as both are graced with high levels of human resources. Through the analysis of these categories it becomes apparent that although both countries will in all likelihood emerge as world powers eventually, China will retain the highest level of political force, while achieving the title of ‘superpower’ far before its Asiatic neighbor.
Since 1949, China, which is comprised of the People’s Republic of China (Mainland), and the Republic of China (Taiwan), has been a party-state controlled by the Communist Party. Over the years, popular support for the party has waxed and waned, though of late, popular support, and therefore legitimacy is at an all-time high. Since China does not hold true popular elections, looking at voter turnout is a relatively meaningless figure. The citizens however have been enjoying an unprecedented level of economic freedoms, as the Communist Party has allowed for numerous political concessions in order to keep their country competitive in the modern global economy. This has led to the proliferation of a middle-class, which has spurned economic investment both abroad, and internally, while creating a new group of entrepreneurs who despite communist ideals are able to become successful independent businessmen. Despite facing tough competition from state firms, these innovators have had enough success to be dubbed “China’s ‘third sector’”. Though these economic freedoms have not yet translated into major social ones, people are hopeful that said reforms in the economic sector will in fact lead to social reforms, thereby granting legitimacy to their government. Globally, China is seen as the emerging player despite being a communist regime.
Not to be overlooked is India, which is currently a Parliamentary Democracy (as it has been for the last 50 years). At present, there is a coalition government between the Indian National Congress (INC) and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), which is relatively stable. One thing that separates Indian democracy from that of other nations is the consistently high level of voter turnout, even amongst the poor, uneducated masses. With the booming field of Internet Technology (IT), India surged ahead of China, producing cheap educated labor, as opposed to a work force that is by and large uneducated. This has in turn created a larger middle class than their Chinese counterparts, and led to an even larger income gap between rich and poor. This fact has led to high levels of dissent amongst the poor, who still feel abused, misrepresented, and disregarded. Despite government actions to help the “new socialist countryside”, the property (read: land) of peasants is frequently confiscated, leading one such worker to exclaim: “It was once our land, and now we have to apply to work there,” [says Li Chang, a local peasant activist]. “To look at the place brings tears to my eyes.” In China, there is a greater sense of their own possibilities, while the Indian masses feel stuck in their current plight, leading to higher levels of conflict. Internationally, China at the moment is granted a higher level of legitimacy than their neighbors to the north receiving a Civil Liberties score of 6 from the independent research firm Freedom House, while India received a mark of only 3 in the same category.
