我們翻譯這篇文章的理由
多年來我們的觀影方式真的發(fā)生了很大的變化。當(dāng)Apple TV上線的時(shí)候，我甚至能清晰回憶起靠著沙發(fā)看舊影碟的時(shí)光。作為消費(fèi)者，我們主動(dòng)或被動(dòng)地接受媒體界的轉(zhuǎn)變，卻從沒有機(jī)會(huì)了解對(duì)方的處境。希望這篇文章能串連起天平的兩端，帶你們稍稍窺見娛樂業(yè)的過去和未來。??
娛樂業(yè)的未來——?dú)w權(quán)于民
作者：Los Angeles
譯者：鄔璐雪
校對(duì)：王禹琦
推薦：不 鎖
策劃：鄔璐雪 & 劉小康
The future of entertainment娛樂業(yè)的未來——?dú)w權(quán)于民Media giants are battling for viewers’ attention. There will be blood.媒體巨頭們的奪“觀”之戰(zhàn)將是一場(chǎng)硬仗。
In Hollywood lingo, Disney+ launched hot. On blitz day, as Disney called the eve of its television-streaming service’s debut on November 12th, a massive marketing campaign reached a climax. Buses in its theme parks were wrapped in ads, employees in Disney shops wore QR codes for people to sign up with smartphones and ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars” trailed the excitement to come. By the end of the first day, 10m people had signed up—beyond Disney’s highest expectations, it said. Its servers struggled to cope. The company rushed to fix the glitches, as viewers devoured “The Mandalorian”, a specially made live-action “Star Wars” spin-off.用好萊塢的話說，“Disney+”稱得上是一炮而紅。在11月11日的“閃電戰(zhàn)日”——迪士尼流媒體服務(wù)正式上線的前夕，公司的市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷活動(dòng)達(dá)到了頂峰。迪士尼樂園里的巴士貼滿了廣告，商店員工的衣服上都印著二維碼供人們掃描注冊(cè)，緊隨其后的還有美國(guó)廣播公司（ABC）的“與星共舞”真人秀為之捧場(chǎng)助興。Disney+上線一天后，平臺(tái)的注冊(cè)人數(shù)就達(dá)到了1000萬人，超出迪士尼的最高預(yù)期。因大量觀眾狂刷《曼達(dá)洛人》（《星球大戰(zhàn)》的特制衍生劇），迪士尼不得不趕著修復(fù)服務(wù)器故障。For $6.99 a month—slightly less than the cost of a cinema ticket—viewers in America, Canada and the Netherlands can now tap the world’s most valuable entertainment catalogue. As well as new original content, they can watch anything from “Snow White” to “Avengers: Endgame” and, thanks to Disney’s $71bn acquisition this year of 21st Century Fox, all 662 episodes of “The Simpsons” (America’s favourite cartoon family was also enlisted in the ad blitz). Behind the scenes, a new recommendation algorithm hoovered up enough user data in a few hours to start sending millions of personalised viewing suggestions, says Kevin Mayer, who runs Disney’s international and direct-to-consumer businesses, including Disney+.6.99美元一個(gè)月，美國(guó)、加拿大和新西蘭的觀眾現(xiàn)在只需用略低于一張電影票的價(jià)錢，就能在世界最寶貴的片庫(kù)中任意挑選。這個(gè)片庫(kù)不僅包括新的原創(chuàng)內(nèi)容，也涵蓋了從《白雪公主》到《復(fù)仇者聯(lián)盟4：終局之戰(zhàn)》的所有影片。此外，在今年迪士尼斥資710億美元收購(gòu)了21世紀(jì)福克斯公司后，節(jié)目單中還增加了662集完整版的《辛普森一家》（這個(gè)最受美國(guó)人喜愛的卡通家族同樣加入了閃電戰(zhàn)營(yíng)銷活動(dòng)）。負(fù)責(zé)Disney+項(xiàng)目以及直接面向消費(fèi)者業(yè)務(wù)的凱文·邁耶表示，在后臺(tái)，公司能利用新型推薦算法在幾個(gè)小時(shí)內(nèi)獲取足量用戶數(shù)據(jù)，并推送數(shù)百萬條個(gè)性化建議。Going into on-demand streaming is an epochal shift for the 96-year-old company. Like its Hollywood rivals, it has built an empire on controlling access to films and tv shows, which were released in dribs and drabs—on cinema screens, broadcast networks and cable channels. That model, the entertainment industry has concluded, is no longer viable in the internet age. In October AT&T, which owns WarnerMedia, the former Time Warner, unveiled HBO Max. The new service will give viewers full online access to HBO programming, as well as to other valuable content including the libraries of Warner Bros, New Line Cinema and Japan’s Studio Ghibli, plus new original shows. NBCUniversal will parry with Peacock, a mainly ad-supported streaming platform also expected next year. Smaller services such as CBS All Access and Showtime have already piled in. On November 1st Apple, a tech giant with entertainment aspirations, launched Apple TV+, its own streaming service with several star-studded original shows.對(duì)于96歲高齡的迪士尼來說，進(jìn)軍流媒體是一個(gè)劃時(shí)代的轉(zhuǎn)變。如同他的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手好萊塢，迪士尼的帝國(guó)也建立在控制影視劇的觀看權(quán)上，這些影視資源通過電影院、廣播網(wǎng)絡(luò)和有線電視的方式逐步得到發(fā)布。但業(yè)內(nèi)斷定，此類模式在網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)代已經(jīng)行不通了。坐擁華納媒體（原名“時(shí)代華納”）的美國(guó)電話電報(bào)公司（AT&T）在10月公布了它的流媒體平臺(tái)“HBO Max”。這個(gè)新平臺(tái)能給觀眾提供的不僅有HBO的全部劇集，還包括華納兄弟、新線影業(yè)和日本吉卜力工作室的影片庫(kù)及一些原創(chuàng)劇。NBC環(huán)球也將在明年推出廣告支持的流媒體平臺(tái)“孔雀（Peacock）”。除了這些行業(yè)巨頭外，較小規(guī)模的服務(wù)商，比如哥倫比亞廣播公司旗下的CBS全頻道（CBS All Access）和美國(guó)娛樂時(shí)間電視網(wǎng)（Showtime），也都加入了戰(zhàn)局。作為渴望躋身娛樂行業(yè)的科技巨頭，蘋果公司也在11月1日推出了流媒體平臺(tái)“Apple TV+”，并上線了幾部群星云集的原創(chuàng)劇目。 “We are surprised it took them all so long,” quips Ted Sarandos, chief content officer of Netflix, which began the streaming revolution in 2007. But now they are here. It is, in the words of Brian Roberts, chief executive of Comcast, a cable behemoth which owns NBCUniversal, “an important moment, as many parties across broad industries have entered the competition for content creation”. “我們其實(shí)很驚訝他們花了這么長(zhǎng)時(shí)間才真正走到這一步，” 網(wǎng)飛公司（Netflix）的首席內(nèi)容官泰德·薩蘭多斯調(diào)侃道，畢竟網(wǎng)飛在2007年就掀起了流媒體革命。但現(xiàn)在已然是群雄并起。正如擁有NBC環(huán)球的有線電視巨頭康卡斯特（Comcast）的首席執(zhí)行官布萊恩·羅伯茨所說：“這是一個(gè)重要的時(shí)刻，許多跨行業(yè)陣營(yíng)都已經(jīng)加入到了內(nèi)容創(chuàng)作戰(zhàn)當(dāng)中。”That competition should benefit consumers, who can expect a surfeit of high-quality fare. For media companies and their shareholders, it will be brutal. Billions of dollars will get torched. Some endings will be happier than others.博弈之下，涌現(xiàn)出的大量?jī)?yōu)質(zhì)內(nèi)容必然使消費(fèi)者受益。但對(duì)傳媒公司與股東而言，這將是場(chǎng)惡戰(zhàn)。數(shù)以億計(jì)的資金將付之一炬，結(jié)局也將是幾家歡喜幾家愁。The entertainment business’s original script was simple. People paid for cinema tickets (and later video rentals) to watch films, and advertisers paid networks for access to viewers of their TV shows. That began to change in the 1990s. Hit series like “The Sopranos” and “Sex and the City” on HBO, a cable channel then owned by Time Warner, proved that people would pay extra for compelling television. But HBO still relied on “sequential” releases of weekly episodes. It was also a wholesale proposition, sold in a bundle of pay-TV channels. “The big bang”, says Barry Diller, chairman of IAC, who in 1986 founded Fox Broadcasting as a rival to the three incumbent free-to-air networks, ABC, CBS and NBC, came in the mid-2000s with Netflix and, soon after, Amazon Prime Video, the e-commerce giant’s streaming service.娛樂行業(yè)最初的模式其實(shí)很簡(jiǎn)單。觀眾購(gòu)買電影票（后來還有租賃影碟）來觀影，廣告商付費(fèi)給廣播電視植入廣告。但在90年代，情況發(fā)生了變化。雖然當(dāng)時(shí)時(shí)代華納公司旗下的有線電視頻道HBO主打的仍然是“按順序”放送周播劇的模式，但《黑道家族》和《欲望都市》的熱播也的確證明了觀眾愿意為好劇額外付費(fèi)。把熱播劇打包出售給多家付費(fèi)電視頻道，更像是個(gè)批發(fā)生意。IAC公司（全稱InterActiveCorp，一家美國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司）的董事長(zhǎng)巴里·迪勒曾在1986年創(chuàng)立了?？怂箯V播（Fox Broadcasting），這家公司后來與美國(guó)廣播公司（ABC）、哥倫比亞廣播公司（CBS）和美國(guó)全國(guó)廣播公司（NBC）這三家免費(fèi)收視廣播公司四分天下。他說，“大爆炸”始于2006年左右，當(dāng)時(shí)網(wǎng)飛的流媒體服務(wù)橫空出世，隨后電商巨頭亞馬遜推出Amazon Prime Video，希望從中分得一杯羹?！?/section>The industry’s initial response to the challengers was to pawn its crown jewels. Netflix paid hundreds of millions of dollars for rights to stream beloved sitcoms like “Friends” or “The Office”. HBO struck deals with Amazon to supply it with programming such as “Six Feet Under”. This allowed the streaming upstarts to rack up subscribers and splurge on more content. In time, they began producing their own programmes, notably in 2013 with “House of Cards”. Netflix released the entire first season of its political drama at once, ushering in the age of “binge-watching”.面對(duì)挑戰(zhàn)者，娛樂業(yè)最初做出的回應(yīng)是隨意變賣自家的寶庫(kù)。網(wǎng)飛公司花費(fèi)數(shù)億美元購(gòu)買了《老友記》和《辦公室》等觀眾鐘愛的情景喜劇的播放權(quán)；HBO和亞馬遜簽訂協(xié)議為之提供《六尺之下》等節(jié)目。這些手段使得流媒體新貴們得以快速積累用戶并繼續(xù)為收購(gòu)內(nèi)容一擲千金。他們找準(zhǔn)時(shí)機(jī)開始制作原創(chuàng)劇，而其中最著名的當(dāng)屬2013年的政治劇《紙牌屋》。在制作完《紙牌屋》后，網(wǎng)飛一次性發(fā)布了第一季的所有劇集，從而引領(lǐng)了“刷劇”時(shí)代。Meanwhile, the rest of the business was being reshaped in other ways. Many media groups were folded into vertically integrated conglomerates that controlled both the production and distribution of content. In 2013 Comcast completed its purchase of nbcUniversal. In 2015 AT&T, a telecoms company, bought DirecTV, a satellite firm, and in 2018 paid $85bn for Time Warner, owner of HBO and the Warner Bros studio. Disney eschewed vertical integration but expanded horizontally. Its megadeal with 21st Century Fox was the fourth for its boss, Bob Iger, who had earlier snapped up Pixar (an animation studio), Lucasfilm (maker of “Star Wars”), and Marvel Entertainment, home of Marvel Comics.與此同時(shí)，行業(yè)的其他方面也正在被重塑。不少傳媒集團(tuán)被縱向整合成一體化的企業(yè)集團(tuán)，以同時(shí)把控內(nèi)容的生產(chǎn)和分銷。2013年，康卡斯特公司完成了對(duì)NBC環(huán)球的收購(gòu)；2015年，AT&T收購(gòu)了衛(wèi)星電視公司DirecTV，并在2018年以850億美元的價(jià)格收購(gòu)了坐擁HBO和華納兄弟工作室的時(shí)代華納。迪士尼則放棄了縱向整合轉(zhuǎn)而進(jìn)行橫向擴(kuò)張。對(duì)迪士尼的老板鮑勃·伊格爾而言，這次與21世紀(jì)?？怂梗?1st Century Fox）的巨額交易已是第四筆收購(gòu)，而此前他就已將皮克斯動(dòng)畫工作室（Pixar）、《星球大戰(zhàn)》的制作方盧卡斯影業(yè)（Lucasfilm）以及持有漫威漫畫的漫威娛樂（Marvel Comics）收入囊中。This flurry of consolidation created a handful of giant content owners, with massive back catalogues and a willingness to spend heavily on old shows and new programming (see chart 1). In October HBO Max reportedly agreed to pay over $500m for the American rights to air 23 old series and three new ones of “South Park”, a satirical cartoon owned by Viacom. It was one of the biggest on-demand-licensing deals of all time. The same rights went for $192m four years ago. As one media executive puts it, with more than a hint of admiration, “AT&T is not screwing around.” Since 2010 just three groups—WarnerMedia, Disney and Netflix—have ploughed a total of $250bn into programming (see chart 2).
這陣合并熱潮創(chuàng)造出了幾個(gè)內(nèi)容巨頭。他們坐擁海量片庫(kù)并且愿意在新舊節(jié)目上擲以重金（見圖1）。據(jù)報(bào)道，今年10月HBO Max同意為全26季《南方公園》（維亞康姆旗下的諷刺動(dòng)畫，其中新系列占3季）的美國(guó)播放權(quán)花費(fèi)5億美元。這是有史以來最大額度的影視點(diǎn)播權(quán)交易之一，四年前同樣的授權(quán)只賣出了1.92億美元。正如一位媒體高管所說，“AT&T不是在鬧著玩，”艷羨之情溢于言表。自2010年起，僅華納媒體、迪士尼和網(wǎng)飛三家公司就已經(jīng)在影視劇上投入了2500億美元（見圖2）。圖1
圖2
As content-related costs have surged, the lucrative old business model has receded. Netflix has made viewers less willing to pay over the odds for a big bundle of pay-TV channels, which generated margins of around 50% and accounted for as much as three-quarters of profits at media conglomerates like Time Warner, Disney, Viacom or News Corporation. Streaming as a stand-alone business either loses money or at best, breaks even. Netflix books accounting profits but has yet to turn free cashflow positive (though it expects to soon). It has accumulated $12bn of long-term debt despite making no acquisitions. Media firms moving into streaming have “swapped a quarter for a nickel and paid $5 for the privilege,” sums up one executive.隨著內(nèi)容的相關(guān)支出激增，舊商業(yè)模式原本豐厚的利潤(rùn)已經(jīng)萎縮。網(wǎng)飛的轉(zhuǎn)變使得觀眾為大批付費(fèi)電視頻道消費(fèi)的意愿降低。付費(fèi)電視給網(wǎng)飛提供的利潤(rùn)率約為50%，并為時(shí)代華納、迪士尼、維亞康姆和新聞集團(tuán)等媒體企業(yè)貢獻(xiàn)了約3/4的利潤(rùn)。但現(xiàn)階段，流媒體作為一個(gè)獨(dú)立業(yè)務(wù)，要么在虧損，要么充其量盈虧持平。網(wǎng)飛雖然錄得了會(huì)計(jì)利潤(rùn)，但尚未將自由現(xiàn)金流回正（盡管預(yù)計(jì)指日可待）；雖未進(jìn)行任何收購(gòu)，但已欠下120億美元的長(zhǎng)期債務(wù)。一名高管曾總結(jié)道，那些向流媒體轉(zhuǎn)型的傳媒公司是在“用25美分換5美分，為了特權(quán)又再付上5美元。” There are three ways to make streaming pay. Firms can accumulate deep ranks of loyal subscribers at home and abroad. They can raise prices. Or they can spend less on programming.有三種方式可以從流媒體服務(wù)上獲得回報(bào)：第一，在海內(nèi)外同時(shí)積累大量忠實(shí)用戶；第二，提價(jià)；第三，削減節(jié)目成本。Winning over millions of subscribers is getting harder. Once consumers have paid for broadband and for a simple bundle of news and sports, it takes only three or four streaming services at current prices before the bill adds up to not much less than what they coughed up for old pay-TV. Companies are jumping into streaming in a peak-attention economy, notes Tim Mulligan of MIDiA Research. Consumers have no more spare leisure time for new tv apps. Reed Hastings, boss of Netflix, has named “Fortnite”, a hit video game, and sleep as his main competition.要爭(zhēng)取到百萬以上的用戶已經(jīng)變得越來越困難。如果消費(fèi)者已經(jīng)為寬帶和一些新聞、體育節(jié)目付費(fèi)，那么按照現(xiàn)價(jià)只要再訂閱三到四個(gè)流媒體服務(wù)，賬單就將趕上付費(fèi)電視。雖然米迪亞咨詢公司的蒂姆·穆利根曾表示，現(xiàn)階段正是各大公司爭(zhēng)相轉(zhuǎn)向流媒體的焦點(diǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)期，消費(fèi)者們卻沒有多余的時(shí)間留給新的電視軟件。網(wǎng)飛公司的老板里德·哈斯廷斯說過，《堡壘之夜》（熱門游戲）和睡眠才是他的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。In practice, his and others’ streaming services will probably have to claw viewers away from each other. Even then, customers may not stay. Switching costs are low. People might sign up for Disney+ to see “The Mandalorian”, leave and then come back a year later for a new Marvel film.事實(shí)上，網(wǎng)飛和其他流媒體服務(wù)可能都不得不互相爭(zhēng)奪觀眾?？杉幢闳绱?，觀眾也不見得會(huì)留下。因?yàn)閾Q臺(tái)的成本太低了，觀眾可能會(huì)為了《曼達(dá)洛人》注冊(cè)Disney+，看完后就轉(zhuǎn)身離開，直到一年后再為新的漫威電影回歸平臺(tái)。If building an enormous subscriber base looks hard, what about raising prices? Netflix did so in the spring, when its standard plan went up by $2. There is chatter that Disney may need to raise its price for Disney+ sooner rather than later. But that risks driving subscribers into rivals’ arms.如果建立龐大的用戶群看上去很困難，那么提升價(jià)格呢？今年春天網(wǎng)飛公司就把標(biāo)準(zhǔn)訂閱套餐提高了2美元。也有說法認(rèn)為，Disney+可能應(yīng)該盡早提價(jià)。但這總有把自家用戶推向競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。Again, Netflix serves as a cautionary tale. In the third quarter it added just 500,000 American subscribers, 300,000 fewer than expected. Earlier this year it saw their number decline for the first time in 12 years. And that was before Disney, Apple and others entered the fray. Globally, Netflix now expects to add 26.7m subscribers this year, down from 28.6m in 2018; 90% of its subscriber growth comes from abroad, where it is potentially more expensive to win viewers because of the need to tailor content for each market.于是網(wǎng)飛又一次成為了前車之鑒。今年第三季度，網(wǎng)飛的美國(guó)用戶只增加了大約50萬人，比預(yù)期少了整整30萬。年初的時(shí)候，他們已經(jīng)目睹了用戶數(shù)量12年來的首次下降，而彼時(shí)迪士尼、蘋果和其他對(duì)手尚未入局。從全球范圍來看，網(wǎng)飛預(yù)計(jì)本年用戶將新增2670萬人，低于2018年的2860萬，并且有90%的新用戶來自海外。但由于每個(gè)市場(chǎng)的內(nèi)容需要量體裁衣，贏得海外用戶的成本自然也要高得多。That leaves spending on programming as the last lever on profits. This, says Mr Roberts of Comcast, will need to be pulled back somewhat over time. There is no sign of that yet. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, a research firm, the average cost of producing a single episode of a scripted drama is close to $6m, twice the going rate of three to four years ago. This year 16 firms, from Disney to Quibi, a short-form mobile-video platform, will spend a total of $100bn on content, according to UBS, a bank. That is roughly equal to the sum invested in America’s oil industry this year.這么看來，削減節(jié)目成本就成了撬動(dòng)盈利最后的杠桿?？悼ㄋ固毓镜牧_伯茨曾說，隨著時(shí)間的推移，這筆開支會(huì)有所回落。但截至目前，這句話還沒有應(yīng)驗(yàn)。據(jù)調(diào)查公司彭博行業(yè)研究稱，一集電視劇的平均制作成本接近600萬美元，即便按現(xiàn)行匯率計(jì)算也是三四年前的兩倍。而瑞士聯(lián)合銀行的數(shù)據(jù)則表明，從迪士尼到移動(dòng)短視頻平臺(tái)Quibi，今年16家公司在內(nèi)容上的投資共計(jì)將達(dá)1000億美元。這幾乎是美國(guó)石油產(chǎn)業(yè)今年的總投資額。Disney expects its streaming service to break even by 2024, once it reaches 60m-90m subscribers. The plan is for two-thirds of these to come from overseas. Some on Wall Street worry that the firm could lose money on Disney+ for years to come. Streaming may encourage a faster rate of “cord-cutting”, as people cancel pricey pay-TV subscriptions, cannibalising the company’s mainstay cable profits.迪士尼預(yù)計(jì)其流媒體服務(wù)平臺(tái)將在2024年前積累6000萬-9000萬的用戶量以實(shí)現(xiàn)盈虧平衡。并且在他們的計(jì)劃里，其中2/3的用戶會(huì)來自海外。但部分華爾街人士卻擔(dān)心該公司會(huì)在Disney+上虧損多年。流媒體可能促使觀眾更快地“切斷電纜”，即取消昂貴的付費(fèi)電視訂閱業(yè)務(wù)，對(duì)迪士尼賴以為生的有線電視盈利形成沖擊。Mr Iger has as good as admitted that Disney is betting the farm. But, as he explained in his recently published autobiography, it has little choice. Its rivals appear to share the sentiment. AT&T expects to invest $2bn in year one of HBO Max and to earn no revenue at the start. Over time, the hope is, investment will go down and revenue will rise; the service is also expected to break even in five years.伊戈?duì)柣旧铣姓J(rèn)了迪士尼是在孤注一擲。但正如他在新出版的自傳里解釋的那樣，迪士尼幾乎別無選擇。在這一點(diǎn)上，它的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手似乎也有同感。AT&T預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)在HBO Max上線的第一年投入20億美元，并做好了一開始不盈利的打算。它希望隨著時(shí)間的推移，該服務(wù)能夠慢慢實(shí)現(xiàn)投入下降和收益上升，并在第五年達(dá)到收支平衡。Still, a shake-out looks inevitable. There is much uncertainty about who will be left standing. The prevailing view in the industry is that Netflix will be hard to dislodge. It has amassed 158m global subscribers and created a brand that appeals to all ages and tastes. Its recent purchase of rights to “Seinfeld” will help make up for the loss of “Friends” and “The Office”, two of its most popular shows which AT&T and Comcast, respectively, plan to pull from Netflix. It has 47,000 TV episodes and 4,000 films in its American catalogue, according to Ampere Analysis, a research firm. That is far more than the 7,500 episodes and 500 films that Disney+ will offer in its first year. It will spend $15bn or so this year on original content. Mr Sarandos says there are no plans to adjust Netflix’s strategy in response to all the new competition.盡管如此，大洗牌似乎不可避免，誰能笑到最后也難有定數(shù)。業(yè)界普遍認(rèn)為網(wǎng)飛的地位難以撼動(dòng)。畢竟網(wǎng)飛已經(jīng)積累了1.58億全球用戶，并創(chuàng)造了一個(gè)老少皆宜口味不忌的品牌。其最近購(gòu)買的《宋飛正傳》將彌補(bǔ)兩部全民熱劇《老友記》和《辦公室》分別被AT&T和康卡斯特挖走所帶來的虧空。根據(jù)安培分析公司提供的數(shù)據(jù)，網(wǎng)飛的美國(guó)片庫(kù)中有47000部電視劇和4000部電影，遠(yuǎn)超Disney+第一年將提供的7500部劇和500部電影。除此之外，網(wǎng)飛今年還將為原創(chuàng)內(nèi)容投入約150億美元。薩蘭多斯稱，網(wǎng)飛并沒有對(duì)所有新的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)形勢(shì)都作出戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整的計(jì)劃。Disney, with its must-see shows and profits that are the envy of the industry, is also here to stay. So in all likelihood is HBO Max, which can tap its parent company’s 170m customer relationships. 'We could not do this without AT&T,' says Bob Greenblatt, chairman of WarnerMedia Entertainment, who oversees the group’s direct-to-consumer business. “There is no way that we could so easily reach tens of millions of people on our own.” As with Comcast, whose Peacock service should find a nest in the new media landscape, entertainment is becoming an important source of revenue for AT&T. The phone giant will also use HBO Max to acquire and retain wireless customers. Smaller content players such as Discovery and Sony Entertainment will have to identify niches. CBS and Viacom (which are merging) are planning an arms-dealer strategy—of supplying content to anyone who wants to buy it. 而迪士尼，懷抱著其令業(yè)界羨慕的必看節(jié)目和利潤(rùn)，也將在業(yè)內(nèi)屹立不倒。同樣穩(wěn)如泰山的還有能從母公司引流到1.7億用戶的HBO Max。“如果沒有AT&T，我們做不成這件事，”華納媒體娛樂公司的董事長(zhǎng)、直面消費(fèi)者業(yè)務(wù)總監(jiān)鮑勃·格林布拉特說，“單靠我們自己絕不可能輕易吸納數(shù)千萬的用戶?！焙涂悼ㄋ固匾粯樱A(yù)期“孔雀”業(yè)務(wù)能在新媒體格局中占據(jù)一席之地），娛樂業(yè)正在成為AT&T的重要收入來源。這家電信巨頭也將利用HBO Max招徠和維系無線客戶。不同于這些大公司，探索頻道（Discovery）和索尼娛樂（Sony Entertainment）等小型內(nèi)容生產(chǎn)商則必須在戰(zhàn)局中明確自己的市場(chǎng)定位。而另一邊的哥倫比亞廣播公司和維亞康姆（合并中）則在計(jì)劃一項(xiàng)“軍火商式戰(zhàn)略”——向任何有意者兜售內(nèi)容。Over time, firms that can aggregate the various streaming services in bundles with simple interfaces will reap rewards. Consumers are overwhelmed by the volume of content coming their way. They are increasingly fed up with having to search for shows on various platforms. Internet service providers such as Comcast and Verizon can help curate this video onslaught. Comcast’s Xfinity Flex, a new service for broadband-only customers, for example, offers a seamless way to use more than 100 video and music services. A voice-controlled TV remote can search for, say, “the episode in ‘Seinfeld’ where George claims to be a marine biologist”.隨著時(shí)間的推移，那些能用簡(jiǎn)單的界面匯總大量流媒體服務(wù)的公司將獲得回報(bào)。琳瑯滿目的內(nèi)容將使消費(fèi)者應(yīng)接不暇。他們?cè)絹碓絽挓┰诟鞣N不同的平臺(tái)搜索節(jié)目。而像康卡斯特和威訊（Verizon）這樣的網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)供應(yīng)商將解決這個(gè)問題。比如康卡斯特的Xfinity Flex流媒體盒，這款專為寬帶用戶提供的新服務(wù)，就可以實(shí)現(xiàn)百余個(gè)影像和音樂服務(wù)平臺(tái)間的無縫轉(zhuǎn)換。觀眾可以利用語(yǔ)音遙控來進(jìn)行搜索，比如說一句“轉(zhuǎn)到《宋飛正傳》里喬治聲稱自己是海洋生物學(xué)家的那一集?！?/section>Then there are the technology giants. For them, producing entertainment is not an end in itself, says Matthew Ball, former head of strategy at Amazon Studios (and an occasional contributor to The Economist). In Amazon’s case, TV is a way to retain Prime subscribers and sell more shoes and loo roll. For Apple it is about selling hardware and expanding its range of services.科技巨頭順勢(shì)進(jìn)入了戰(zhàn)局。偶爾也為《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》撰稿的亞馬遜工作室前策略主管馬修·鮑爾曾說過，對(duì)他們來說，生產(chǎn)娛樂內(nèi)容并不是最終目的。就亞馬遜而言，電視不過是留住Prime用戶并賣出更多鞋和衛(wèi)生紙的途徑而已。而蘋果公司的目的，則是出售硬件并擴(kuò)大業(yè)務(wù)范圍。Many media executives, particularly the veterans among them, worry about what this means for the future of high-quality content. In their view, much of the film and TV business is now run by clueless outsiders. They cite Apple’s “Stories to Believe in”, as its first TV shows were mawkishly trailed, as evidence of naivety. “The Morning Show”, a drama about working in television starring Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon, got mixed reviews. “The show, and the service, don’t need to exist,” concluded Rolling Stone magazine. Despite kudos for backing critically acclaimed shows like “Fleabag” and “The Marvelous Mrs Maisel”, Amazon’s longer record in TV draws similarly tepid reviews. “Apple doesn’t know what the fuck they are doing and Amazon knows less,” concludes a former film-studio bigwig.很多媒體高管，尤其是其中的資深人士，認(rèn)為高質(zhì)量?jī)?nèi)容的前景堪憂。在他們看來，很多影視業(yè)務(wù)現(xiàn)在正由一些一無所知的外行人打理。由此他們?cè)颂O果第一批頗為煽情的預(yù)告片《值得相信的事》（Stories to Believe in）來證明其幼稚得可笑。而另一部由詹妮弗·安妮絲頓和瑞茜·威瑟斯彭主演、講述電視臺(tái)工作的原創(chuàng)劇《早間新聞》（The Morning Show），得到的評(píng)價(jià)則褒貶不一。“這部劇和這個(gè)服務(wù)平臺(tái)，都沒必要存在，”《滾石》雜志評(píng)論道。盡管因投拍《倫敦生活》（Fleabag）和《了不起的麥瑟爾夫人》（The Marvelous Mrs Maisel）等備受好評(píng)的劇集而獲譽(yù)，亞馬遜在電視方面的整體歷程招致了同樣慘淡的評(píng)論。一名前電影制片廠大亨總結(jié)道：“蘋果壓根就不知道自己在干什么，亞馬遜更是如此”。Top management at AT&T wants HBO to produce a lot more programming. In practice, that could include less rarefied fare that might appeal to America’s heartland, not just its coastal elites. HBO’s unabashedly elitist old-timers are not keen on the new strategy. The decision by John Stankey, head of the telecom firm’s entertainment unit, to ramp up production prompted a raft of departures, including that of Richard Plepler, HBO’s head, who gave the green light to “Game of Thrones”. “Stankey wants HBO to compete with Netflix,” says Rick Rosen, a founder of the Endeavour Agency. But many people worry that there is a big risk of HBO’s brand losing its distinctiveness. “After 20 more years of doing it,” jokes one streaming boss, “John Stankey will be a great creative executive.”AT&T的高層想讓HBO制作更多節(jié)目。但事實(shí)上，這包括了那些能迎合觀眾但不那么深入人心的節(jié)目。它們需要吸引美國(guó)中心地帶的人群，而非僅僅是沿海的精英。HBO那些以精英主義自居的老前輩并不熱衷于這種新戰(zhàn)略。AT&T的娛樂業(yè)務(wù)負(fù)責(zé)人約翰·斯坦基提高產(chǎn)量的決定一經(jīng)做出就引起了許多人的離職，其中包括HBO的負(fù)責(zé)人，曾為《權(quán)力的游戲》開過綠燈的理查德·普萊普爾?！八固够胱孒BO和網(wǎng)飛競(jìng)爭(zhēng)”，奮進(jìn)經(jīng)紀(jì)公司（Endeavour Agency）的創(chuàng)始人之一里克·羅森表示。但很多人擔(dān)心這樣做HBO有很大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)喪失品牌特色?！翱赡茉俑蓚€(gè)20年，約翰·斯坦基才能學(xué)會(huì)如何成為一名優(yōu)秀的創(chuàng)意總監(jiān)吧” ，一名流媒體主管調(diào)侃道。It would nevertheless be a mistake to conclude that outsiders will never get things right. Jeff Bewkes, former chief executive of Time Warner, once dismissed Netflix as “the Albanian Army”. Now Hollywood considers the company a legitimate film studio. It is also easy to overstate the role of senior executives at media firms’ parent companies. Much of the creativity in Hollywood comes from lower down, from outside big firms and from informal networks of writers and stars, some with their own production companies, including Ms Witherspoon and Michael B. Jordan.然而斷定外行人永遠(yuǎn)做不好卻是個(gè)錯(cuò)誤。時(shí)代華納的前首席執(zhí)行官杰夫·貝索斯曾貶低網(wǎng)飛像“阿爾巴尼亞軍隊(duì)”一樣外行，但如今就連好萊塢都不得不承認(rèn)它已是電影制片的正規(guī)軍。另外，傳媒公司母公司中那些高管的作用也總是很容易被夸大。好萊塢的創(chuàng)造力有很多源于底層、外部大公司，以及作者與明星之間的非官方合作。其中有一些人還擁有自己的制作公司，比如威瑟斯彭和邁克爾·B·喬丹。Tinseltown has a way of absorbing outsiders. Media executives point out that Apple and Amazon are already adapting. At first they put tech types in charge of their TV operations but later installed seasoned film folk with strong links to the creative world. On November 12th it was reported that Mr Plepler is in talks with Apple about an exclusive production agreement. Like many a moneyman seduced over the years, Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s boss, seems star-struck. He goes to all the awards ceremonies, including the Golden Globes—above and beyond what even movie-studio bosses feel obliged to, remarks a former studio executive.好萊塢總有辦法吸引外來者。傳媒高管們指出，蘋果和亞馬遜正在適應(yīng)這里的規(guī)則。起初，他們讓技術(shù)人員負(fù)責(zé)影視運(yùn)營(yíng)，后來則將與創(chuàng)意界緊密聯(lián)系的電影老炮安插其中。11月12日，有報(bào)道稱HBO前總裁普勒（Richard Plepler）正與蘋果就獨(dú)家制片協(xié)議進(jìn)行洽談。像這些年慕名而來的眾多金融家一樣，亞馬遜的老板杰夫·貝索斯似乎是個(gè)追星族。一位前制片廠高管透露，貝索斯熱衷于參加各路頒獎(jiǎng)典禮，甚至連制片人不必去的金球獎(jiǎng)也照去不誤。As long as money keeps flowing, creativity should flourish. So far, shareholders appear happy to let it flow. Netflix’s share price has fallen from its peak in mid-2018 but the company remains highly rated relative to earnings. Disney shares have risen by 28% since the company revealed the details of Disney+ to investors in April. AT&T and Comcast are also up this year.只要資金源源不斷，創(chuàng)意就會(huì)噴涌而出。到目前為止，股東們都很樂意讓資金流動(dòng)起來。雖然網(wǎng)飛的股價(jià)在2018年年中已經(jīng)從峰值開始下跌，但公司的收益排名仍居高不下。今年4月迪士尼向投資者們透露了Disney+的細(xì)節(jié)以后，它的股價(jià)上升了28%。AT&T和康卡斯特的股價(jià)今年也都有所上漲。Even before the taps are tightened—as they inevitably will be—the streaming wars have reshaped media well beyond video entertainment. The shift from linear schedules to fragmented, on-demand consumption makes it harder for any one company to exert a big influence on people’s viewing, says Bob Bakish, chief executive of Viacom. Every company needs to adapt accordingly, he adds. It is also weakening the link between entertainment and television news. That is most visible in Rupert Murdoch’s decision to sell much of 21st Century Fox to Disney, a deal which closed in March. He continues to control News Corp, containing newspapers, and Fox Corporation, a broadcaster that owns Fox News and other assets.甚至在資源不可避免地緊縮之前，流媒體之戰(zhàn)對(duì)媒體的重塑也已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出了視頻娛樂的范疇。維亞康姆的首席執(zhí)行官鮑勃·巴克表示，從線性的節(jié)目單到碎片式的點(diǎn)播消費(fèi)，這個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)變使得任何一個(gè)公司都更難對(duì)人們的觀影產(chǎn)生重大影響。而后他又補(bǔ)充說，每個(gè)公司都需要做出相應(yīng)調(diào)整。除此之外，娛樂和電視新聞之間的聯(lián)系也被削弱了。最明顯的例子就是魯伯特·默多克決定將21世紀(jì)福克斯的大部分股份出售給迪士尼，這項(xiàng)交易于今年3月完成。而他自己繼續(xù)把控新聞集團(tuán)（報(bào)紙）和?？怂箯V播公司（擁有?？怂剐侣?lì)l道和其他資產(chǎn)）。Silicon Valley, season twoThe wild card hanging over the industry is what the tech giants will do next. Some people think Apple could cut its spending on entertainment or even exit the business. It is seen as more unpredictable than Amazon, which seems committed to making and showing content. Yet the overriding view in Hollywood is that, with their untold piles of cash and their valuations of $1trn or so apiece, the tech giants are only just getting started. They could easily swallow a media firm or two.科技巨頭下一步的動(dòng)作則是那張高懸在業(yè)內(nèi)的未知牌。有人認(rèn)為蘋果應(yīng)該減少它在娛樂業(yè)上的開支，甚至退出這個(gè)市場(chǎng)，因?yàn)樗奈磥肀戎铝τ趦?nèi)容制作與呈現(xiàn)的亞馬遜更不可預(yù)料。但是好萊塢的主流觀點(diǎn)是，憑借巨額現(xiàn)金和每家公司1萬億美元左右的估值，科技巨頭的娛樂產(chǎn)業(yè)之路才剛剛開始。它們甚至可以輕易吞并掉一兩家媒體公司。Trustbusters may stymie any such move by Alphabet, Google’s parent, which already owns YouTube. Amazon might find it hard in practice given scrutiny of its rapid expansion (and Jeff Bezos’s ownership of the Washington Post). Apple might have an easier time. When Mr Bewkes was looking to sell Time Warner a few years ago, talks were held with Apple as well as AT&T. There has been much chatter about Mr Iger’s comment in his autobiography that, if Steve Jobs were still alive, Disney and Apple would have combined (Disney, for its part, nearly bought Twitter in 2016).反壟斷機(jī)構(gòu)可能會(huì)阻止谷歌母公司Alphabet的任何類似舉動(dòng)，畢竟它已坐擁Youtube。亞馬遜的迅速擴(kuò)張（加上杰夫·貝佐斯對(duì)《華盛頓郵報(bào)》的所有權(quán)）引來嚴(yán)密審查，增加了實(shí)操的難度。相比之下蘋果可能更輕松一些。幾年前，當(dāng)貝克思嘗試出售時(shí)代華納時(shí)，他曾與蘋果和AT&T都進(jìn)行過談判。伊戈?duì)栐谧詡髦行Q，如果史蒂夫·喬布斯還活著，迪士尼和蘋果可能早已合并（迪士尼本身差點(diǎn)在2016年買下推特），此番言論引發(fā)了熱議。For all Mr Sarandos’s fighting talk, even Netflix could be a target if the streaming wars affect its growth and the firm’s finances come under pressure. As dizzying as the pace of change has been in media in the past few years, it is unlikely to let up. 盡管薩蘭多斯多番立下戰(zhàn)斗宣言，但如果流媒體之戰(zhàn)導(dǎo)致公司財(cái)務(wù)緊張、發(fā)展受阻的話，網(wǎng)飛成為眾矢之的也并非無稽之談。在過去的幾年內(nèi)，媒體變革的步伐令人眼花繚亂，而未來卻也少有放緩的可能。對(duì)68歲的Iger來說，“Disney+”的失敗決不是他想看到的結(jié)果，他計(jì)劃在2021年底辭去自己的職務(wù)。他的遺產(chǎn)，以及迪士尼的未來，都有賴于“Disney+”。但當(dāng)Iger準(zhǔn)備好進(jìn)入一個(gè)未知的世界，他有信心自己會(huì)到達(dá)理想的目的地。他說：“世上只有一個(gè)迪士尼。”https://www.lieyunwang.com/archives/459899
從美國(guó)文娛IP看大娛樂產(chǎn)業(yè)的投資價(jià)值
隨著流媒體紛紛開始轉(zhuǎn)型制作原創(chuàng)內(nèi)容，美國(guó)流媒體巨頭開始撬動(dòng)好萊塢電影、電視工業(yè)的架構(gòu)?！磥淼男袠I(yè)增長(zhǎng)可能來自多元化服務(wù)，因?yàn)樗麄兝么怪鄙虡I(yè)機(jī)會(huì)授權(quán)品牌產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)，包裝旅游和現(xiàn)場(chǎng)音樂的消費(fèi)者體驗(yàn)，將音樂服務(wù)與其他在線內(nèi)容服務(wù)捆綁在一起等等。流媒體服務(wù)將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，并為消費(fèi)者提供更多個(gè)性化服務(wù)。消費(fèi)者比以往任何時(shí)候都更有能力影響數(shù)字娛樂產(chǎn)業(yè)。http://www.sohu.com/a/258527288_814389
流媒體平臺(tái)HBO Max與吉卜力達(dá)成獨(dú)家合作
據(jù)The Verge消息，華納旗下流媒體平臺(tái)HBO Max獲得了日本吉卜力工作室所有動(dòng)畫電影的美國(guó)線上播放權(quán)，《千與千尋》、《龍貓》和《哈爾的移動(dòng)城堡》等21部經(jīng)典作品將于2020年正式上線。這是吉卜力首次授權(quán)許可旗下電影登陸北美流媒體平臺(tái)。
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