本文來自INC網站。芒格有一句名言：如果我知道我要死在哪里，我就不會去那個地方。就像代數(shù)，反向思考是一種很有力的思考工具。網球里面有也兩種贏的策略：一種是高手策略，強調進攻技巧讓對手接不到球；另一種是普通人的策略，強調不失誤讓球回過去。生活也是一樣，一種策略是如何變得聰明，另一種策略是如何變得不愚蠢。 David Tunning對于愚蠢的研究給出了不那么愚蠢的5個方法。Enjoy！
Even if you've never heard of University of Michigan psychologist David Dunning, you are no doubt intimately familiar with the concept that bears his name. It's called the Dunning-Kruger effect, and it says that while the competent are often plagued with doubt, the incompetent tend to be blissfully sure of their excellence.
即使你從未聽說過密歇根大學心理學家David Tunning，你也應該聽說過一個以他的名字命名的概念。它被稱為Dunning-Kruger效應，這個效應說：盡管有能力的人常常被疑惑所困擾，無能的人往往對他們的卓越充滿信心。
Or to put it more bluntly, stupid or incompetent people are often too stupid or incompetent to understand exactly how stupid and incompetent they are. They think they're awesome.
或者更坦率地說，愚蠢或無能的人往往太愚蠢或太無能而無法理解他們究竟是多么愚蠢和無能。他們認為自己很棒。
This idea explains so much real-world behavior that it has become justifiably famous as the go-to explanation for the idiocy we all suffer in our day-to-day lives. But in a great recent interview with Vox's Brian Resnick, Dunning explains that his work isn't just a handy label for your most annoying office mate (or most hated politician). The Dunning-Kruger effect, he insists, suggests ways all of us can be both a little less dumb and a little less oblivious to our stupidity.
這個想法解釋了如此多的現(xiàn)實世界的行為，它已成為我們在日常生活中遭遇到白癡的首要解釋。但是最近在接受Vox的Brian Resnick的一次采訪中，Dunning解釋說他的研究成果不僅僅是你給最討厭的辦公室同事（或者最討厭的政客）的標簽。他堅持認為，Dunning-Kruger效應提醒我們所有人都可以通過使用一些方法從而不那么愚蠢。
1. Lean on other people. 依靠其他人
The most essential lesson of Dunning's work isn't that other people are bad at judging their own competence; it's that we're all terrible at our assessing our skills. The Dunning-Kruger effect 'is a phenomenon that visits all of us sooner or later. Some of us are a little more flamboyant about it. Some of us aren't. But not knowing the scope of your own ignorance is part of the human condition,' Dunning explains.
Dunning的研究最重要的教訓并不是告訴你：其他人不善于判斷他們自己的能力; 而是：我們在評估我們的技能時都非常糟糕。 Dunning-Kruger效應 “是一種遲早會訪問我們所有人的現(xiàn)象。我們中的一些人有點夸張。我們有些人不是。但不知道你自己的無知范圍是人類的一部分先天設定，” Dunning解釋說。
We're all susceptible to stupidity and overconfidence. One way to start correcting for that is to lean more on other minds. Groups are less likely to be dumb than individuals.
我們都容易受到愚蠢和過度自信的影響。開始糾正這種情況的一種方法是更多地依賴其他人的思想。團隊不像個人那么容易愚蠢。
'A lot of the issues or problems we get into, we get into because we're doing it all by ourselves. We're relying on ourselves. We're making decisions as our own island,' Dunning says. 'If we consult, chat, schmooze with other people, often we learn things or get different perspectives that can be quite helpful.'
“我們遇到很多情況或問題，因為我們是自己在做這件事。我們依靠自己。我們像孤島一樣決策，” Dunning說。 “如果我們與其他人進行咨詢，聊天，閑聊，通常我們會學習或獲得非常有用的不同觀點。”
2. Imagine the worst-case scenario. 想象一下最壞的情況
Optimism has its place in life but not, apparently, when you're trying to make a truly smart decision. Then gloom and neurosis will serve you better, according to psychology. 'Ask yourself where you could be wrong if the decision is an important one. Or how can your plans end up in disaster? Think that through -- it matters,' Dunning instructs.
樂觀在生活中占有一席之地，但顯然，當你試圖做出一個真正明智的決定時，樂觀可不行。根據(jù)心理學的觀點，憂郁和恐懼會更好地為你服務。 “如果決定是重要的，那么問問自己哪里可能出錯?；蛘吣愕挠媱澣绾巫罱K成為災難？仔細一一思考 — 這很重要，” Dunning說。
3. Think in probabilities, not certainties. 思考概率，而不是確定性
Want to get better at predicting the future and therefore making better decisions today? Give up on black-and-white, yes-or-no style thinking, and instead try to think in terms of probabilities. Not, 'Will X or Y occur?' but, 'What is the chance of X or Y occurring -- 10, 50, 80 percent?'
想要更好地預測未來，從而做出更好的決策嗎？放棄非黑即白，非是即否的思考方式，而是嘗試從概率的角度思考。不是 “X或Y會發(fā)生嗎？” 而是，“X或Y發(fā)生的幾率是多少 - 10％，50％，80％？”
This tip comes 'from the work of [University of Pennsylvania psychologist] Philip Tetlock and his 'superforecasters,'' Dunning notes. Tetlock has found that 'people who think not in terms of certainties but in terms of probabilities tend to do much better in forecasting and anticipating what is going to happen in the world than people who think in certainties.'
這個提示來自“賓夕法尼亞大學心理學家Philip Tetlock的研究和他的書《超級預測者》，” Dunning指出。 Tetlock發(fā)現(xiàn)，“那些不是用確定性思考而是用概率思考的人往往在預測世界將要發(fā)生的事情方面比用確定性思考的人更好。”
4. Know what's a fact and what's an opinion. 知道什么是事實，什么是意見
Back in grade school, some teacher probably had you do an exercise where you separated fact from opinion. 'This picture is beautiful' is an opinion. 'Barack Obama was born in America' is a fact. These days, according to Dunning, more and more of us are forgetting this essential distinction. If you want to be a little smarter, you need to remind yourself that some questions aren't open for personal interpretation.
回到小學，有些老師可能會讓你做一個你將事實與意見分開的練習。 “這張照片很漂亮”是一種觀點。 “奧巴馬出生在美國”是一個事實。如今，根據(jù)Dunninng的說法，我們越來越多的人忘記了這一本質的區(qū)別。如果你想變得更聰明，你需要提醒自己，有些問題不適合個人的詮釋。
'If you survey Democrats and Republicans right now, of course they differ in terms of their priorities for the country and their theories of where we should take the country. But they also differ in what they think the country is. They really differ in terms of 'Is the economy doing well?' 'What's the record of the Obama administration?' 'Did the stock market go up or did it go down?'' Dunning tells Resnick. But 'these are factual questions,' he stresses. You don't get to have an opinion. All you get to do is look up the right answer.
“如果你現(xiàn)在對民主黨人和共和黨人進行調查，理所當然的是他們在國家優(yōu)先事項上觀點不同，在應該把國家引向何方的理論方面也有所不同。但是他們對這個國家是什么的看法也不同。比如： “經濟狀況良好嗎？” “奧巴馬政府的記錄是什么？” “股市上漲了還是下跌了？” Dunning告訴Resnick。但他強調，“這些都是事實性問題”。你不需要擁有意見。你所要做的就是找到正確的答案。
5. Get better at saying 'I don't know.' 善于說“我不知道”
Looking up these facts is dead simple these days thanks to Google. The tricky part isn't the research, it's the psychology. Before you go and look for information, you first have to admit you don't already know that information. That takes intellectual humility, and humans aren't always awesome at humility.
由于谷歌的存在，這些事實現(xiàn)在了解起來很簡單。棘手的部分不是研究，而是心理。在你去尋找信息之前，你首先必須承認你還不知道這些信息。這需要智慧的謙遜，人類并不總是謙虛。
'People seem to be uncomfortable about saying, 'I don't know.' That's one thing we've never been able to get people to do,' Dunning admits. But while psychology might not have found the right lever to nudge us toward humility, it is in the power of each individual to choose to actively remind ourselves of the limits of our knowledge. Do that and you'll instantly be smarter.
“人們似乎對說 '我不知道' 感到不舒服。” 這是我們從未能夠讓人們去做的一件事，” Dunning承認。但是，雖然心理學可能沒有找到正確的杠桿來推動我們變得謙遜，但每個個體的力量都在于選擇積極地提醒自己我們知識的局限性。這樣做，你會立即變得更聰明。
