The Dow getting whacked more than 50 points this morning has me in good spirits, so I thought I'd do an unusual intraday post........
I went to a wedding on Saturday night. It was spectacular. I'm not at liberty to disclose who was getting married, since it would upset a lot of guys out there! But I've never seen such a star-studded gala. A lot of Internet luminaries, venture capitalists, hollywood producers, and the like. Plus little old me.
But here's why I'm telling the story. One of the fellows there - the founder of a major Internet company that I guarantee you've been to - is someone I know, so I introduced him to my wife and chatted with him a bit. I remarked on how bearish I was, and he smiled and shook his head and said, "Not me."
He went on to say that basically everyone learned their lessons during the bubble. There was no more over-hiring. No more buying too much inventory. No more waste. Not more bad decisions. Therefore - - no more bubble, and no more bust.
I've got to say, it was a little disconcerting to me. I mean, here's a guy who is really successful, really rich, and really smart. He went on........."As long as there are guys like you who worry, I know things are going to be OK. Because the markets are going to climb a wall of worry on the backs of guys like you. When you stop worrying, then there's trouble."
And I thought to myself - sheesh, that's kind of a shitty remark! I mean, what he's basically saying is that bears are sort of like canaries in a coal mine - - just really stupid ones. We are wrong all the time, so much so that when we decide the market is going to go up, that's when it's really going to get hammered. So until that time, it's all wine & roses.
I have a hard time dismissing this gent's comments out of hand. I mean, he's a really sharp fellow. But I also recognize that he's an incredibly successful Internet entrepreneur and, as such, is going to be highly inclined toward a bullish view of the world.
Food for thought.......