原文來自ValueWalk網(wǎng)站，作者不詳。文章摘取了巴菲特“股東手冊”中對賬面價值和內(nèi)在價值的解釋，簡單又深刻。簡而言之：1）內(nèi)在價值是個估計值，受利率和預(yù)測影響 2）賬面價值和內(nèi)在價值沒什么關(guān)系。
Today, I provide another excerpt from the same Owner's Manual in which Buffett explains the principles that he and Munger use to calculate Intrinsic Value. It's a must read for all investors.
今天，我從“股東手冊”中摘錄另一段關(guān)于如何計算公司內(nèi)在價值的文章，股東手冊是巴菲特和芒格解釋他們公司運營和投資的基本原則的書。這是所有投資者的必讀本。
Here's another excerpt from Buffett's Owner's Manual:
以下是股東手冊的摘錄：
Now let’s focus on a term that I mentioned earlier and that you will encounter in future annual reports.
現(xiàn)在讓我們關(guān)注我前面提到的一個術(shù)語，你們在未來的年度報告中也會遇到。
Intrinsic value is an all-important concept that offers the only logical approach to evaluating the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses. Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life.
內(nèi)在價值是一個非常重要的概念，它提供了唯一的邏輯方法來評估投資和公司的相對吸引力。內(nèi)在價值可以簡單的定義成：公司在剩余的生命周期里可以取出的現(xiàn)金的折現(xiàn)值。
The calculation of intrinsic value, though, is not so simple. As our definition suggests, intrinsic value is an estimate rather than a precise figure, and it is additionally an estimate that must be changed if interest rates move or forecasts of future cash flows are revised. Two people looking at the same set of facts, moreover – and this would apply even to Charlie and me – will almost inevitably come up with at least slightly different intrinsic value figures. That is one reason we never give you our estimates of intrinsic value.
然而，內(nèi)在價值的計算并不那么簡單。如我們的定義所示，內(nèi)在價值是一個估計值而不是一個精確的數(shù)字。而且，如果利率變動或未來現(xiàn)金流的預(yù)測被修改了，這個估計值也必須隨之改變。此外，即使兩個人看到同樣的事實— 包括芒格和我—也會不可避免地得出略有不同的內(nèi)在價值數(shù)值。這也是我們從來不給出內(nèi)在價值的估計的一個原因。
What our annual reports do supply, though, are the facts that we ourselves use to calculate this value.
然而，我們的年報提供了我們自己用來計算這個值的事實數(shù)據(jù)。
Meanwhile, we regularly report our per-share book value, an easily calculable number, though one of limited use. The limitations do not arise from our holdings of marketable securities, which are carried on our books at their current prices. Rather the inadequacies of book value have to do with the companies we control, whose values as stated on our books may be far different from their intrinsic values.
與此同時，我們定期報告我們的每股賬面價值，這是一個容易計算的數(shù)字，雖然作用有限。其局限性并不來自于我們持有的有價證券是以他們的現(xiàn)有價格記賬的緣故。賬面價值的缺陷與我們控制的公司有關(guān)，這些公司在我們賬面體現(xiàn)的價值和他們的內(nèi)在價值可能相去甚遠。
The disparity can go in either direction. For example, in 1964 we could state with certitude that Berkshire’s per-share book value was $19.46. However, that figure considerably overstated the company’s intrinsic value, since all of the company’s resources were tied up in a sub-profitable textile business. Our textile assets had neither going-concern nor liquidation values equal to their carrying values. Today, however, Berkshire’s situation is reversed: Now, our book value far understates Berkshire’s intrinsic value, a point true because many of the businesses we control are worth much more than their carrying value.
差異可以發(fā)生在任一方向上。例如，在1964年，我們可以確切的說伯克希爾的每股賬面價值為19.46美元。然而，這個數(shù)字大大夸大了公司的內(nèi)在價值，因為公司的所有資源被維系在一個利潤不佳的紡織品業(yè)務(wù)上。我們的紡織品資產(chǎn)既沒有持續(xù)經(jīng)營能力，也沒有等于其賬面價值的清算價值。然而今天，伯克希爾的情況完全逆轉(zhuǎn)了：現(xiàn)在，我們的賬面價值遠遠低于伯克希爾的內(nèi)在價值，這是真的，因為我們控制的很多業(yè)務(wù)的價值遠遠高于其賬面價值。
Inadequate though they are in telling the story, we give you Berkshire’s book-value figures because they today serve as a rough, albeit significantly understated, tracking measure for Berkshire’s intrinsic value. In other words, the percentage change in book value in any given year is likely to be reasonably close to that year’s change in intrinsic value.
雖然我們的賬面價值不足以說明故事全部，我們給你伯克希爾的賬面價值數(shù)字，因為他們雖然粗略，而且明顯低估太多，但卻可以作為跟蹤伯克希爾內(nèi)在價值的一個指標。換句話說，任何一年的賬面價值的百分比變化可能很接近該年的內(nèi)在價值的變化。
You can gain some insight into the differences between book value and intrinsic value by looking at one form of investment, a college education. Think of the education’s cost as its “book value.” If this cost is to be accurate, it should include the earnings that were foregone by the student because he chose college rather than a job.
您可以通過類比大學教育投資來了解賬面價值和內(nèi)在價值之間的差異。把教育的成本視為“賬面價值”。如果這個成本是準確的，它應(yīng)該包括學生放棄的收入，因為他選擇了大學而不是工作。
For this exercise, we will ignore the important non-economic benefits of an education and focus strictly on its economic value. First, we must estimate the earnings that the graduate will receive over his lifetime and subtract from that figure an estimate of what he would have earned had he lacked his education. That gives us an excess earnings figure, which must then be discounted, at an appropriate interest rate, back to graduation day. The dollar result equals the intrinsic economic value of the education.
在這個練習里面，我們將忽視教育的帶來的重要的非經(jīng)濟效益，只是嚴格的關(guān)注其經(jīng)濟價值。首先，我們必須估計一個畢業(yè)生在其一生中將獲得的收入，并從該數(shù)字中減去如果他沒有接受教育可能獲得的收入的估計。這給我們一個額外的收入數(shù)字，然后必須以適當?shù)睦收郜F(xiàn)，算回到畢業(yè)日。計算得到的結(jié)果等于教育的內(nèi)在經(jīng)濟價值。
Some graduates will find that the book value of their education exceeds its intrinsic value, which means that whoever paid for the education didn’t get his money’s worth. In other cases, the intrinsic value of an education will far exceed its book value, a result that proves capital was wisely deployed. In all cases, what is clear is that book value is meaningless as an indicator of intrinsic value.
有一些畢業(yè)生會發(fā)現(xiàn)，他們的教育的賬面價值超過其內(nèi)在價值，這意味著有人支付了教育成本，但沒有得到他的錢的價值。在其他情況下，教育的內(nèi)在價值將遠遠超過其賬面價值，這證明資本被聰明地投資了。不管哪種情況，清楚的是，賬面價值是作為內(nèi)在價值的指標是毫無意義的。
愉悅資本是新一代VC基金，由劉二海、李瀟、戴汨創(chuàng)立。我們是創(chuàng)始人也是投資經(jīng)理。
